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	Comments on: March 15th Democratic Primary Results: What does it mean?	</title>
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	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 21:43:45 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468735</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 21:43:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468735</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Well, then it&#039;s a good thing that Ted Cruz is &lt;b&gt;not&lt;/b&gt; a Christian...  Wait.  He does a good job masquerading as one, though.  Goes with the party affiliation, I guess.  ::sigh::]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, then it&#8217;s a good thing that Ted Cruz is <b>not</b> a Christian&#8230;  Wait.  He does a good job masquerading as one, though.  Goes with the party affiliation, I guess.  ::sigh::</p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468734</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 21:33:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468734</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Well, that&#039;s why I just voted for Bernie - it&#039;s tough to choose the lesser evil, between a Nazi and a guy whose own father says we should elect him so he can start World War III to make Jesus come back and end the world.  But your average voter is much less familiar with just how bad Tailgunner Ted could be, because the media simply don&#039;t dare to pick on religion if it&#039;s Christian or Jewish.  And for the group of voters whose primary motivation is hatred of Washington, the fact that Cruz also hates Washington and hopes to ruin everything that is done there might not be understood to be a negative.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, that&#8217;s why I just voted for Bernie &#8211; it&#8217;s tough to choose the lesser evil, between a Nazi and a guy whose own father says we should elect him so he can start World War III to make Jesus come back and end the world.  But your average voter is much less familiar with just how bad Tailgunner Ted could be, because the media simply don&#8217;t dare to pick on religion if it&#8217;s Christian or Jewish.  And for the group of voters whose primary motivation is hatred of Washington, the fact that Cruz also hates Washington and hopes to ruin everything that is done there might not be understood to be a negative.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468733</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 18:22:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468733</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;some independents might vote in the Republican primary just to vote against Trump;&lt;/i&gt;

They will be far, far better served to wait and vote against Trump in the general election. 

Voting in the primaries to block Trump&#039;s nomination will likely have the undesirable result of helping a malevolent extremist/anarchist get his name on the ballot -- one who is more likely to win (even if he has the distinction of being the most hated Senator in U.S. history) and thus embark on his own gleeful destruction of America.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>some independents might vote in the Republican primary just to vote against Trump;</i></p>
<p>They will be far, far better served to wait and vote against Trump in the general election. </p>
<p>Voting in the primaries to block Trump&#8217;s nomination will likely have the undesirable result of helping a malevolent extremist/anarchist get his name on the ballot &#8212; one who is more likely to win (even if he has the distinction of being the most hated Senator in U.S. history) and thus embark on his own gleeful destruction of America.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468732</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 18:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468732</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/03/16/clinton-likely-to-win-democratic-party-nomination/]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/03/16/clinton-likely-to-win-democratic-party-nomination/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2016/03/16/clinton-likely-to-win-democratic-party-nomination/</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468731</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 17:46:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468731</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The Deomcratic race in the second half of the country, or at least the latter portion of it, may be affected by how fast Drumpf accumulates a delegate lead that would normally get him the GOP nomination.  If the GOP race is still close and polls in a given state are close, some independents might vote in the Republican primary just to vote against Trump; if they knew that vote would be wasted, they might vote Democratic, for which candidate I can&#039;t guess.  Likewise, some working-class people who find appeal in both Trumpian and Sandersian versions of populism might be more likely to vote in the Democratic primary (then supporting Sanders) if they thought that Trump already had the GOP nomination in the bag.

Interestingly, if it ends up Trump vs. Clinton this will be the first time that both major-party candidates are actively disliked by a majority of the public, including some of their own voters.  Hard to say how that turns out.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Deomcratic race in the second half of the country, or at least the latter portion of it, may be affected by how fast Drumpf accumulates a delegate lead that would normally get him the GOP nomination.  If the GOP race is still close and polls in a given state are close, some independents might vote in the Republican primary just to vote against Trump; if they knew that vote would be wasted, they might vote Democratic, for which candidate I can&#8217;t guess.  Likewise, some working-class people who find appeal in both Trumpian and Sandersian versions of populism might be more likely to vote in the Democratic primary (then supporting Sanders) if they thought that Trump already had the GOP nomination in the bag.</p>
<p>Interestingly, if it ends up Trump vs. Clinton this will be the first time that both major-party candidates are actively disliked by a majority of the public, including some of their own voters.  Hard to say how that turns out.</p>
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		<title>
		By: RickR		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468730</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RickR]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 17:26:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468730</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[After adding in yesterday&#039;s results, here are the current predictions for the states that have not yet voted; the numbers are the projected vote share for Clinton:

DC	106.6
MD	77.2
DE	64.6
NY	60.9
NJ	58.0
CA	55.6
NM	51.1
CT	50.3
PA	48.5
AZ	47.7
HI	46.5
IN	46.1
RI	43.8
KY	43.3
WI	42.3
WA	41.1
AK	40.0
OR	38.1
UT	37.4
WV	36.6
ID	36.0
WY	35.6
SD	34.4
ND	33.9
MT	33.1
 
Yes, it predicts Clinton will win 106.6 percent of the DC vote, this is what you get when you use a linear fit and throw in an demographic outlier like DC.

Although Sander&#039;s is projected to win more states, toward the the top of the list, and thus projected wins for Clinton, are a couple of large states (NY, CA) with lots of delegates which Clinton are projected to win. So the larger number of states that Sanders is projected to win does not necessarily mean more delegates.

Toward the bottom of the list, thus projected Sanders wins, are heavily republican western states (ND, SD, WY, ID, UT, AK) for which we have not much data among the states that have already voted. It will be interesting to see it their demographics follow the pattern that the mainly eastern and southern states for which we have data. That may be the primary unknown here.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After adding in yesterday&#8217;s results, here are the current predictions for the states that have not yet voted; the numbers are the projected vote share for Clinton:</p>
<p>DC	106.6<br />
MD	77.2<br />
DE	64.6<br />
NY	60.9<br />
NJ	58.0<br />
CA	55.6<br />
NM	51.1<br />
CT	50.3<br />
PA	48.5<br />
AZ	47.7<br />
HI	46.5<br />
IN	46.1<br />
RI	43.8<br />
KY	43.3<br />
WI	42.3<br />
WA	41.1<br />
AK	40.0<br />
OR	38.1<br />
UT	37.4<br />
WV	36.6<br />
ID	36.0<br />
WY	35.6<br />
SD	34.4<br />
ND	33.9<br />
MT	33.1</p>
<p>Yes, it predicts Clinton will win 106.6 percent of the DC vote, this is what you get when you use a linear fit and throw in an demographic outlier like DC.</p>
<p>Although Sander&#8217;s is projected to win more states, toward the the top of the list, and thus projected wins for Clinton, are a couple of large states (NY, CA) with lots of delegates which Clinton are projected to win. So the larger number of states that Sanders is projected to win does not necessarily mean more delegates.</p>
<p>Toward the bottom of the list, thus projected Sanders wins, are heavily republican western states (ND, SD, WY, ID, UT, AK) for which we have not much data among the states that have already voted. It will be interesting to see it their demographics follow the pattern that the mainly eastern and southern states for which we have data. That may be the primary unknown here.</p>
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		<title>
		By: zebra		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468729</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[zebra]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:58:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468729</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Before the spirit of Sun Tzu leaves my channel, let me make a couple of observations.

Much has been made about Hillary getting &quot;victories&quot; (delegates) in States that are not competitive in the general. 

But I took a look at the county results provided by NYT, (click on maps) and what&#039;s interesting is that many of the Bernie victories e.g. in Illinois are in areas that voted overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney. 

So I have to wonder just how much of the &quot;independent&quot; White Male vote going to Bernie is strategic voting by those who typically vote R.

And while a couple of very gracious comments here by Bernie supporters are comforting, over at the NYT, it is hard not to see a Republican trolling operation gearing up; endless repetition of &quot;I&#039;ll never vote for that murderous slut&quot; and so on. Psych-ops standard kind of voter suppression.

And maybe everyone could stop with the &quot;winning the State&quot; stuff and talk about delegate numbers. Basically splitting the delegates is just the same whether it&#039;s Bernie or Hillary that has a percent or two more votes.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Before the spirit of Sun Tzu leaves my channel, let me make a couple of observations.</p>
<p>Much has been made about Hillary getting &#8220;victories&#8221; (delegates) in States that are not competitive in the general. </p>
<p>But I took a look at the county results provided by NYT, (click on maps) and what&#8217;s interesting is that many of the Bernie victories e.g. in Illinois are in areas that voted overwhelmingly for Mitt Romney. </p>
<p>So I have to wonder just how much of the &#8220;independent&#8221; White Male vote going to Bernie is strategic voting by those who typically vote R.</p>
<p>And while a couple of very gracious comments here by Bernie supporters are comforting, over at the NYT, it is hard not to see a Republican trolling operation gearing up; endless repetition of &#8220;I&#8217;ll never vote for that murderous slut&#8221; and so on. Psych-ops standard kind of voter suppression.</p>
<p>And maybe everyone could stop with the &#8220;winning the State&#8221; stuff and talk about delegate numbers. Basically splitting the delegates is just the same whether it&#8217;s Bernie or Hillary that has a percent or two more votes.</p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468728</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:40:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468728</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Recount demands are more common here.  It seems Missouri lets anyone who has lost by less than 0.5% demand a recount, so if you lose by 0.24%, as is the current claim for Sanders, you almost automatically ask for a recount.  It usually does find some votes that weren&#039;t tallied initially, because none of our usual methods of voting are foolproof.  (Unfortunately, recounting votes cast on touch-screen computer machines is impossible, and the company that makes the machines has ties to a particular political faction - this is why I always ask for paper ballots.)  

It&#039;s usually also the case that there are some provisional ballots cast that aren&#039;t counted until the voters, whose eligibility was questioned at the polling place, prove that they are eligible to vote.  That can take a day or more, and in a really close election might make the difference.  In general elections, in most parts of the country these questioned voters are poor and/or minority and therefore skew Democratic, but I can&#039;t guess how they might skew in this primary.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recount demands are more common here.  It seems Missouri lets anyone who has lost by less than 0.5% demand a recount, so if you lose by 0.24%, as is the current claim for Sanders, you almost automatically ask for a recount.  It usually does find some votes that weren&#8217;t tallied initially, because none of our usual methods of voting are foolproof.  (Unfortunately, recounting votes cast on touch-screen computer machines is impossible, and the company that makes the machines has ties to a particular political faction &#8211; this is why I always ask for paper ballots.)  </p>
<p>It&#8217;s usually also the case that there are some provisional ballots cast that aren&#8217;t counted until the voters, whose eligibility was questioned at the polling place, prove that they are eligible to vote.  That can take a day or more, and in a really close election might make the difference.  In general elections, in most parts of the country these questioned voters are poor and/or minority and therefore skew Democratic, but I can&#8217;t guess how they might skew in this primary.</p>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468727</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 16:27:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468727</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#10
&quot;But I might not vote at all if she didn’t need it.&quot;

How could you be certain &quot;she didn&#039;t need it?&quot; What might happen if everyone who felt she didn&#039;t need it stayed home?

The more votes the Democratic nominee gets the better. Going to the polls would also help the other Democratic candidates, and this is also important. 
http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/state-for-sale

Republicans are arguing that a new Supreme Court Justice should not be voted on until the people have spoken. Every additional vote for the Democrat will be a vote that makes it harder for Republicans to oppose a Democratic President&#039;s nominee. Do you care about that?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#10<br />
&#8220;But I might not vote at all if she didn’t need it.&#8221;</p>
<p>How could you be certain &#8220;she didn&#8217;t need it?&#8221; What might happen if everyone who felt she didn&#8217;t need it stayed home?</p>
<p>The more votes the Democratic nominee gets the better. Going to the polls would also help the other Democratic candidates, and this is also important.<br />
<a href="http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/state-for-sale" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/10/10/state-for-sale</a></p>
<p>Republicans are arguing that a new Supreme Court Justice should not be voted on until the people have spoken. Every additional vote for the Democrat will be a vote that makes it harder for Republicans to oppose a Democratic President&#8217;s nominee. Do you care about that?</p>
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		<title>
		By: cosmicomics		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/03/15/march-15th-democratic-primary-results-what-does-it-mean/#comment-468726</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[cosmicomics]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 15:57:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22268#comment-468726</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[#18
In Denmark the rural results come in first. The same thing may be true of the U.S. In that case the city vote, which would be more favorable
to Clinton because of a larger minority population, would add to Clinton&#039;s tally. If I&#039;m correct, then both campaigns would understand that that the shift was not abnormal, and there won&#039;t be any demand for a recount.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#18<br />
In Denmark the rural results come in first. The same thing may be true of the U.S. In that case the city vote, which would be more favorable<br />
to Clinton because of a larger minority population, would add to Clinton&#8217;s tally. If I&#8217;m correct, then both campaigns would understand that that the shift was not abnormal, and there won&#8217;t be any demand for a recount.</p>
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