I don’t know why turnout would be lower near my place than it has been in recent past. The weather was perfect.

Last spring was when local school districts had bond issues up, and there a couple county-related issues.

Victor, you are confusing a concept (in your head) of my own thinking about this with the arguments I’ve stated as arguments that are on the table. Perhaps I’ve not made my self clear. I think both are quite electable, but also, that the arguments about their respective electability involve elements that can’t be compared in any quantifiable way.

Not sure why Independents should be assumed to make what some would call a more rational choice (of supporting a centrist). Independents are not people who are positioned equidistantly between the two parties. It probably varies a great deal across space and time. For example, in Minnesota, a few years ago, “independents” went so far as to create their own party, which tended to nominate hard right candidates. Later, this was consumed by the tea party (which arguably started here, or at least, one of the birthplaces of the Tea Party was Minnesota, and a big part of that were our independents) which of course melded with (and took over to a large extent) the Republican party.

What I’m telling you is that you may be ignoring some important but unquantifiable facts, and that some of your quantifiable facts are less important than you think they are.

You say “…this is not natural science and there is no clear cut answer to the questions we are discussing.” I totally agree with that!

But, you are making the argument that my model (which has so far proven very accurate) is wrong because your thinking, based on “numbers and facts” disagrees with it. But that is not true. They don’t disagree. They are entirely different perspectives.

Either way, today will be a very interesting day in Michigan.

That Clinton has been vilified is what it is. That will not change between now and November. You cannot wish that away in your assessment of the situation. Just like Sanders has been ignored and his plans heavily attacked by the mass media who mostly would like the system to stay like it is.

In that situation, the numbers are what they are in that situation. People are welcome to check my facts and make their own interpretation.

You are welcome to think that a socialist cannot get elected.

Many people may also simply assume that a centrist on a left right axis has more chances of being elected. If that were the case you would expect independents to support Clinton more, but they support Sanders more. The fight this election is not the traditional left right one, but mostly the crony establishment versus the people.

Given that you only seem to have your gut feeling that a socialist cannot get elected, I feel it is inappropriate to respond to my numbers and facts with the claim that I do not behave like a scientists. The more so as this is not natural science and there is no clear cut answer to the questions we are discussing.

1) The GOP has spent well over a decade vilifying Hillary Clinton. Much of this vilification has involved fabricating stories and mis-statements about her past that have been repeated so often that they are now taken as fact, even though they are not facts, by many Democrats that would otherwise vote for her. This systematic vilification gives the GOP sufficient ammunition to shoot her down if the GOP itself has a reasonable candidate.

2) Bernie Sanders is a self avowed “socialist” (even if he isn’t, the GOP will convince people that this is true). Americans will never vote for a socialist. Sanders has explicitly stated that he will raise taxes on the middle class. No president (and hardly any governors or anyone else) has been elected in the US to any office for about three decades where they have declared that they will raise taxes.

Matchup polling data is not considered to be that reliable, so that does not obviate these two facts.

If you look at overall preference independent of any matchup within or between parties, both candidates do pretty well, though the GOP hate campaign has depressed Clinton’s numbers somewhat. But both candidates do better than the GOP candidates. So cross checking matchup and preference data, both Democratic candidates seem to have good chances.

So, so far we have a strong argument that both are highly unelectable. And both candidates are highly electable. There is no scientific way to put these two entirely different sets of information into one comparison.

Finally, the GOP currently controls Congress. Congress is one of the most hated institutions at this time in the US. Recent events in the Senate have actually threatened the GOP with loss of the Senate, and those events are specifically anti-Obama. Whichever candidate wins the primary will ally with Obama and use this against the GOP.

If the GOP caves on SCOTUS, their own base will turn on them. If they don’t cave on SCOTUS a good section of the rest of the country will turn on them. Either way they lose, and, again, the eventual Democratic nominee will be pushed towards victory.

Since you have been rather relentless in making your case, I’ll say out loud what I’ve avoided saying to a colleague. I think you have a preference for one of these two candidates (Sanders). I applaud that, and there are good reasons to have the preference, and good for you. But, I think you are picking and choosing among the data, and biasing your interpretations, to make your case for that preference in appropriately. Not very science of you Victor!

The study you refer to indicates that the percentage of variation in outcome “explained” by polling (i.e. predicted) is less for presidential races than other kinds of races. But again, that does not matter to much because they did not look at match-ups.

I’ll ask again, why do you keep repeating this? It’s not supported by data. The data says that head-to-head polls do convey meaning – even one year out (and we’re well within that window now). I provided data sources in an earlier thread:

The Timeline of Election Campaigns:A Comparative Perspective, Jennings and Wlezien, 2013. See page 35, Figure 7. “Adjusted R-Squareds for Presidential and Parliamentary Elections Taken Separately”

There is a weak correlation one year out (r-squared = 0.6) and it increases to election day. At 250 days out the r-squared is 0.7 Combining these numbers with the fact even one year out the head-to-head polls correctly predicted the eventual winner in 12 of the last 14 Presidential elections does *not* lead me to believe head-to-head polls at this time of year are meaningless.

I can only assume that people that *do* believe this meme have never actually looked at the data.

“If you believe in head to head comparisons”….

… then Bernie should drop out immediately, since he has no chance of winning according to the head-to-head polls for the primaries, which are much closer in time than the general.

Lots of money could be saved or redirected to supporting Hillary against the Republicans, which Bernie surely will want to do.

Just sayin’.