#27
” That Bernie hasn’t fired up African-Americans and Hillary has is an important fact.”

Yes, it is, but in a state by state winner takes all system the end result is determined by electoral votes, not popular votes. So the American system has repeatedly enabled the loser to win, most recently George W. Bush. And it’s in the interest of the Republican Party to preserve that system.

#28
I’ve already seen at least three comments from Sanders supporters saying that they or people like them wouldn’t vote if Clinton is the nominee. I don’t vote in American elections and I’m not particularly focused on who the Democratic nominee is. But I am focused on the negative consequences of an American government dominated by the Republican Party. I am indignant at the foolhardy purity of persons who would risk that if their political demands aren’t met. The American election affects the entire world.

#31
“In Long Island, a vote for Clinton is a vote for Trump, at the moment.”

That’s not what the link shows. Also, it tells us nothing about how Long Islanders normally vote.

http://projects.newsday.com/politics/2016-siena-college-poll/

Just go look at the NYT comments. The completely irrational “States that go R in the general election don’t count” meme frequency is remarkable.

Sorry to sound conspiratorial, but much of this must be part of the Republican trolling strategy.

Somehow, as you say, Blue states are going to go Red if Hillary is the nominee?? Makes no sense at all.

OK, strike what I said about both of us wanting to avoid divisiveness.

I am in agreement with everything you are saying, except that this meme is part of the divisiveness that we both would like to avoid, and is being used by what are likely Republican trolls as well– they go far beyond your comment.

You did say “that’s all that counts”, though, and that is not helpful. And if we’re trying to do a sophisticated analysis, we do indeed have to take into account things like (virtually) open primaries (MA and OK at least, but I haven’t looked at others).

Bernie will do better where there is not a large minority population, and will do better in caucuses perhaps. I am objecting to linking with the general election history/potential rather than more fundamental factors. That Bernie hasn’t fired up African-Americans and Hillary has is an important fact.

#18
“…the liberal revolution…”

An oxymoron if there ever was one!

“I wouldn’t count on a lot of revolutionary voters showing up for an establishment candidate.”

Which mainly seems to be evidence of the political immaturity of those voters. If they don’t get what they want (and they wouldn’t, even if Sanders was elected) they’d teach the country a lesson it would never forget! And in the process they’d say fuck you to any action against climate change and make their own very special contribution to the fossil fuel establishment. When Donal speaks, Exxon ejaculates oil.

#21
“OK did go to Sanders. It seems that the liberal revolution is also possible in very white states that have suffered in the oil price collapse.”

The moronic naïveté of some young Sanders supporters defies belief. Sanders received less than 30% of the “establishment” vote – Republicans + Clinton. (Unless, of course, you accept that Clinton voters don’t see such a large difference between the two Democrats and would feel comfortable voting for Sanders.)

#23
Please note that Sanders would not be able to carry out his policies, and that in practice there would be almost no difference between the two. Sanders is a reformist, not a revolutionary. So is Clinton. There are differences of quantity, not of quality. The main difference is that Sanders stands for a more restrained foreign-policy.

cosmicomics: “Clinton’s biggest victories have occurred in southern states that have been voting Republican. This is a fact.”

I suspect that is because Ms. Clinton is the sanest moderate conservative candidate out of the bunch. Some of the Republican Party candidates that got 1% or 2% in the polls are moderate conservatives, but they didn’t lie hard enough and fast enough to appeal to the voters.

In Democratic or swing states, Sanders has done better than in states that generally vote Republican, sometimes beating Clinton.

If political parties were banned (via Constitutional amendment), I suspect we would start to see voters actually voting for people, not parties.