Comments on: Who will win the New Hampshire Primary and what will that mean?

By: On the eve of the New Hampshire primary – Greg Laden's Blog

On the eve of the New Hampshire primary – Greg Laden's Blog — Mon, 08 Feb 2016 19:15:23 +0000

[…] wrote about what I thought might happen in the New Hampshire primary a few days ago, but enough new stuff has happened to make it worth […]

By: Christopher Winter

Christopher Winter — Sun, 07 Feb 2016 17:06:40 +0000

Martin O'Malley never polled higher than single digits in New Hampshire, according to the New York Times. With his exit, I expect the majority of his supporters to switch to Sanders. It will be interesting to see how much difference this makes.

By: Christopher Winter

Christopher Winter — Sun, 07 Feb 2016 16:53:12 +0000

In Iowa, snow held off until after the caucuses closed and did not put a damper on participation. Checking whether weather might affect the turnout in New Hampshire, I find that temperatures are expected to be in the 20s with little wind and only scattered snow flurries. This is fairly typical for NH in February and is unlikely to deter many voters.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/new-hampshire-primary-weather-forecast-cold-snow/55210739

By: Who won last night’s Democratic Primary debate in New Hampshire? – Greg Laden's Blog

Fri, 05 Feb 2016 16:04:34 +0000

[…] way to asses that is to see what happens next Tuesday. As previously discussed, Sanders is expected to win the New Hampshire Primary by about 20%. If, in the end, he falls short […]

By: Jesse

Jesse — Fri, 05 Feb 2016 00:44:19 +0000

@Randy — I know a bit about the Labor movement, and I can tell you that there is some division on this point. The SEIU leadership backed HIllary Clinton but the rank and file (the locals) were divided, or example, AFSCME was the same — the Wisconsin chapters seemed to want Bernie Sanders and the leadership went with Clinton. Communications Workers of America went for Sanders whole hog. IBEW in Nevada went Sanders.

Generally, the big national unions went with Hillary, largely because the bigger locals did. So you could have a situation where some locals wanted Bernie and some wanted Hillary and the national leadership went with the majority (or at least the biggest and wealthiest locals). I don’t know the details of every union and they all have different structures.

So call it a split decision. The unions are ambivalent about Clinton because her lukewarm policy support hasn’t always helped them out. They’re ambivalent about Sanders because he says the right things but has never been in a position to do a ton and even if he were president right now he still might not be, if you see what I mean.

By: Randy

Randy — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 23:46:52 +0000

1) I know very little about the Northeast and have never lived there, but I’ve continually heard that Sanders will do well in NH because of the “neighboring State” effect. However, I’ve also heard talk from people that lived there, that NH is more “establishment” than VT. Hillary won NH in 2008. This would leave me to believe, indeed, that if Bernie does better than 60% that it will be a big win for him.

2) Without a lot of research, information which might not even be available, I’m not convinced the “union” factor supports Hillary. Internet gossip is that unions that let the workers vote… mostly went with Bernie. Unions in which only management got to vote, and not the workers themselves, endorsed Hillary.

By: Jesse

Jesse — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 18:41:41 +0000

Douglas — Latino voters are 3% of ALL the voters in Iowa (the population itself is larger but not by much, Iowa is ~91% white and ~3% AfAm and ~2% Asian, so Latinos would be at most ~4% or so).

So while Latino voters could sway a general election if it is close, unless almost the whole group registered GOP I can’t see it making much difference in the primary. Some difference, but not a lot.

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 18:28:07 +0000

That could matter a lot in Nevada, and I have left Nevada wide open, partly because of that. I assume there is a large overlap between Democrat/Latino/Union-labor in Nevada. I don’t know what the unions are doing there. Sometimes unions do things rather quietly and you don’t know what there plan is until it was.

The “latino/hispanic” population in New Hampshire is about 2%.

NH, Maine, and West Virginia are tied for being the whitest states. Vermont is the whitest state. (By the way, Nevada is 28% latino, 50% white)

By: Douglas C Alder

Douglas C Alder — Thu, 04 Feb 2016 17:47:23 +0000

Greg are you taking into account the way Latinos are voting (no idea how many there are in NH)? – In Iowa they turned up in record numbers to register as Republicans so that they could vote against Trump. That may very well have hurt Bernie as otherwise they probably would have voted Democratic and he’s the most progressive of the two.