Comments on: Trump is going to lose the Iowa Caucus, and here’s why https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/ Tue, 09 Feb 2016 21:16:16 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.6 By: MikeN https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467887 Tue, 09 Feb 2016 21:16:16 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467887 I think you have given one reason why Rubio did so well. I think if instead of a caucus it were an election, the result would have been Trump-Cruz-Carson-Rubio.

Also, there is the problem that people supporting Christie can see they are not doing well, and jumping over to Marco. Same with Carson, Bush, Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum. I think Trump picks up little of these votes.
I suspect many of this group were at 5-6%, and with an uneven split may have been non-viable in many precincts so they have to go elsewhere to be worth anything. Or they just chose to make their vote matter more by going to Rubio or Cruz.

]]> By: John Seers https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467886 Tue, 02 Feb 2016 16:24:58 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467886 Impressive prediction Greg.

]]> By: Lessons from the Iowa Caucus – Greg Laden's Blog https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467885 Tue, 02 Feb 2016 15:53:11 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467885 […] side, there are more lessons than I want or need to discuss, but I’ll mention two. First, as per this item, no matter how out of the box some of this year’s campaigns seem to be (i.e., Trump’s […]

]]> By: StevoR https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467884 Tue, 02 Feb 2016 10:21:50 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467884 Yep. Aussie TV and online news reporting that Cruz beat Trump and Rubio and Hillary Clinton has very narrowly won and claimed victory over Bernie Sanders :

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-02/iowa-caucuses-trump-white-house-campaign-faces-first-test/7132486

Huckabee and Martin O’Malley are now it seems officially out not that either ever stood much chance anyhow.

Round 1 down just another fifty odd to go ..

]]> By: Randy https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467883 Tue, 02 Feb 2016 04:16:48 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467883 OK Greg. You’re a genius. ^^^^^^^ bowing now ^^^^^^^^

]]> By: Who Won The Iowa Caucus 2016? – Greg Laden's Blog https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467882 Tue, 02 Feb 2016 02:32:27 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467882 […] Trump and Cruz started out the evening in a real horse race, but for the last 50 minutes or so Cruz has been ahead by a few points (currently 29.7-26.6). It may be the case that my prediction, which no one believed I might add, will come true. […]

]]> By: Desertphile https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467881 Mon, 01 Feb 2016 23:36:13 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467881 In reply to RickA.

RickA: “Any republican but Trump is my motto.”

Instead of voting for a lesser evil, why don’t youy vote for a good?

]]> By: Desertphile https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467880 Mon, 01 Feb 2016 23:35:22 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467880 In reply to Scott Supak.

Scott Supak: I’ve been betting on politics for a long time now, and I win more than I lose, so I’ve given up poker, craps, and the lottery to do this. Great fun.

Alas, I consistently lose. In fact I always lose, without exception. Damn it. I keep expecting people to act in their best interests; it looks like time for me to change my strategy.

]]> By: Desertphile https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467879 Mon, 01 Feb 2016 23:31:19 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467879 In reply to dean.

dean: Will Cruze’s latest flyers, with the blatantly false accusations of “voting scores and penalties” for residents, influence attitudes towards him?

His targets were likely voters who are also likely RNC voters; so the answer is “It probably didn’t help or hurt” if his victims are stupid (which is already a “given”).

Funny how Cruz worked so hard to prevent people (The Correct Type of People) from voting….

]]> By: Desertphile https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/02/01/trump-is-going-to-lose-the-iowa-caucus-and-heres-why/#comment-467878 Mon, 01 Feb 2016 23:28:41 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22094#comment-467878 In reply to Greg Laden.

Greg Laden Raucous, yes, I know that those guys disagree with me, but they are not making the case I’m making. I’m providing special insight here that has been ignored by others. When this caucus is over and it turns out I’m right, everyone will bow to my genius.

Indeed, if I did not recognize the fact you are right up there with Newton and Twain and Abbey (Ed), I would not read your blog. And I also very much hope you are right: Trump needs to lose Iowa, and badly (by more than 8%) if for no other reason than to give sane, non-lunatic USA citizens hope that the USA has a future.

I suppose Stalin had banners and buttons.

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