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	Comments on: Yes, we are avoiding an Ice Age, but this has been obvious for years	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467612</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Apr 2017 18:00:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467612</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Pedro, I don&#039;t defend theories by making up facts. I&#039;m an ethical and honest person and a trained scientist. Your implication is an insult and I demand an apology.

Meanwhile, I can answer your question. I expect the current &quot;interglacial&quot; to not end in the usual ca 10K or so time period because we&#039;ve never seen glacial cycling on this planet with the CO2 concentration being over about 350 ppm or so.

When we passed 350, probably, certainly 400, we left the Pleistocene.  

Eventually, given the current configuration of continents and orbital geometry, if CO2 concentration returns to ca 250 or so, that wold likely change.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pedro, I don&#8217;t defend theories by making up facts. I&#8217;m an ethical and honest person and a trained scientist. Your implication is an insult and I demand an apology.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, I can answer your question. I expect the current &#8220;interglacial&#8221; to not end in the usual ca 10K or so time period because we&#8217;ve never seen glacial cycling on this planet with the CO2 concentration being over about 350 ppm or so.</p>
<p>When we passed 350, probably, certainly 400, we left the Pleistocene.  </p>
<p>Eventually, given the current configuration of continents and orbital geometry, if CO2 concentration returns to ca 250 or so, that wold likely change.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Wow		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467611</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Wow]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Apr 2017 17:56:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467611</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot; Is that because he wants to defend Global Warming theory so badly?&quot;

With that you&#039;ve pretty much shown it&#039;s pointless trying to answer you.

&quot;defend global warming theory&quot;??? The theory does that. It&#039;s pretty simple. When you reduce the rate of cooling but keep the heat source the same power, the body being heated warms up. It&#039;s the same reason why you wear a thicker coat in winter.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8221; Is that because he wants to defend Global Warming theory so badly?&#8221;</p>
<p>With that you&#8217;ve pretty much shown it&#8217;s pointless trying to answer you.</p>
<p>&#8220;defend global warming theory&#8221;??? The theory does that. It&#8217;s pretty simple. When you reduce the rate of cooling but keep the heat source the same power, the body being heated warms up. It&#8217;s the same reason why you wear a thicker coat in winter.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Pedro		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467610</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pedro]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 29 Apr 2017 09:11:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467610</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Great comments on the article! I am also really interested to know why the author thinks that the current interglacial period would be longer than the last ones anyway? Is that because he wants to defend Global Warming theory so badly? Or is it really a fact? Please let me know if you have more information on that.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Great comments on the article! I am also really interested to know why the author thinks that the current interglacial period would be longer than the last ones anyway? Is that because he wants to defend Global Warming theory so badly? Or is it really a fact? Please let me know if you have more information on that.</p>
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		<title>
		By: David W. Tollen		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467609</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David W. Tollen]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jan 2016 08:12:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467609</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[PintsOfHistory.com just ran a post on this topic (roughly). Please check it out: Ancient Man-Made Global Warming and Environmental Engineering, http://pintsofhistory.com/2016/01/04/ancient-man-made-global-warming-and-environmental-engineering/.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>PintsOfHistory.com just ran a post on this topic (roughly). Please check it out: Ancient Man-Made Global Warming and Environmental Engineering, <a href="http://pintsofhistory.com/2016/01/04/ancient-man-made-global-warming-and-environmental-engineering/" rel="nofollow ugc">http://pintsofhistory.com/2016/01/04/ancient-man-made-global-warming-and-environmental-engineering/</a>.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Michael 2		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467608</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael 2]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Jan 2016 05:48:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467608</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;The hamburger, and our goose, is being overcooked.&quot;

Mine isn&#039;t; but I can speak only for my tiny spot on Earth.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The hamburger, and our goose, is being overcooked.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mine isn&#8217;t; but I can speak only for my tiny spot on Earth.</p>
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		<title>
		By: John Mashey		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467607</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Mashey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Jan 2016 05:02:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467607</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yes, as BBD says ... and from the new paper:
&quot;But the stage 19 greenhouse-gas analog is not perfect.&quot;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, as BBD says &#8230; and from the new paper:<br />
&#8220;But the stage 19 greenhouse-gas analog is not perfect.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>
		By: BBD		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467606</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BBD]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2016 23:23:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467606</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m going to back off a bit from my facile #6 :-)

MIS 1 NH summer insolation is higher now than all previous interglacials back to and including MIS 19 (~780ka) (Ruddiman 2011 fig. 1). As John Mashey says, MIS 19 was perhaps the closest analogue to MIS 1 in terms of orbital dynamics, but TSI at 65N was ~4W/m^2 lower than the present. MIS 1 is unusual.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m going to back off a bit from my facile #6 🙂</p>
<p>MIS 1 NH summer insolation is higher now than all previous interglacials back to and including MIS 19 (~780ka) (Ruddiman 2011 fig. 1). As John Mashey says, MIS 19 was perhaps the closest analogue to MIS 1 in terms of orbital dynamics, but TSI at 65N was ~4W/m^2 lower than the present. MIS 1 is unusual.</p>
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		<title>
		By: BBD		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467605</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BBD]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2016 14:40:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467605</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thank you for the link, John.  It&#039;s really about time that the Ruddiman hypothesis received the wider recognition that it clearly deserves. Perhaps this new study will tip the balance.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for the link, John.  It&#8217;s really about time that the Ruddiman hypothesis received the wider recognition that it clearly deserves. Perhaps this new study will tip the balance.</p>
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		<title>
		By: John Mashey		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467604</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[John Mashey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2016 07:01:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467604</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[MIS 19 is a much better analog than 11 anyway, as indeed is seen in that 2011 paper, especially Fig 6, which BBD has obviously grokked.

This is even stronger in &lt;a href=&quot;http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RG000503/full&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;newest (12-author)* paper.&lt;/a&gt;, which adds 2 more curves to the CH4 and CO2 curves.
Here is a (cautious) &lt;a href=&quot;https://news.virginia.edu/content/mounting-evidence-suggests-early-agriculture-staved-global-cooling&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;U VA press release&lt;/a&gt;, but there is supposed to be an AGU / EOS  &quot;spotlight&quot; piece on it next week.

* This is serious multidisciplinary work to collect the large consilience of evidence.  Following all this over the years has often been a challenge, given the huge variety of journal references, beyond what almost any climate scientist would normally read.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>MIS 19 is a much better analog than 11 anyway, as indeed is seen in that 2011 paper, especially Fig 6, which BBD has obviously grokked.</p>
<p>This is even stronger in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RG000503/full" rel="nofollow">newest (12-author)* paper.</a>, which adds 2 more curves to the CH4 and CO2 curves.<br />
Here is a (cautious) <a href="https://news.virginia.edu/content/mounting-evidence-suggests-early-agriculture-staved-global-cooling" rel="nofollow">U VA press release</a>, but there is supposed to be an AGU / EOS  &#8220;spotlight&#8221; piece on it next week.</p>
<p>* This is serious multidisciplinary work to collect the large consilience of evidence.  Following all this over the years has often been a challenge, given the huge variety of journal references, beyond what almost any climate scientist would normally read.</p>
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		<title>
		By: BBD		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/14/yes-we-are-avoiding-an-ice-age-but-this-has-been-obvious-for-years/#comment-467603</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BBD]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jan 2016 20:24:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22025#comment-467603</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot; and I don’t see an argument &lt;b&gt;from&lt;/b&gt; orbital dynamics to justify it&quot;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8221; and I don’t see an argument <b>from</b> orbital dynamics to justify it&#8221;</p>
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