Comments on: The Atlantic Tropical Storm Season Is Over. Except Alex. https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/ Thu, 26 May 2016 17:40:05 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.6 By: Our first (second) Atlantic Tropical Storm? – Greg Laden's Blog https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467590 Thu, 26 May 2016 17:40:05 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467590 […] Last year’s Atlantic Hurricane season was a bit odd, and produced a storm that happened days after the technical end of that year’s season. So, they put it in this year’s season. That was Hurricane Alex. […]

]]> By: Atlantic Hurricane Names: 2016 – Greg Laden's Blog https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467589 Thu, 26 May 2016 17:39:00 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467589 […] Alex, of course, was already used as a name, since a hurricane formed after they had put the books away during the 2015 season. (See this.) […]

]]> By: Jim Hunt https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467588 Sat, 16 Jan 2016 09:26:22 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467588 Greg – Anticipated or not, tThe by now ex Hurricane Alex is currently hurrying towards Greenland, and the UK Met Office explain that he:

Is adding extra complications to the computer models that generate the forecast for the weather.

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg68412.html#new

See Noevo – Have you by any chance investigated cyclonic activity in the Pacific last year? Here’s just one example for you:

http://econnexus.org/super-typhoon-noul-pounds-the-philippines/

]]> By: See Noevo https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467587 Fri, 15 Jan 2016 02:37:31 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467587 To Greg #4:

“…I can see why someone might make an incorrect statement like you’ve made.”

What was incorrect about my statement?
I said nothing about “long term”, only about the last decade or so.
Are you denying that hurricane activity is below average for the last decade? Are you denying the quote from NOAA?

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467586 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 20:44:04 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467586 Jim, I’m pretty sure that was not expected!

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467585 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 20:42:55 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467585 Eric, yes indeed. This is actually a tropical storm forming outside the tropics.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467584 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 20:41:59 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467584 “However, I understand hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been well below average for at least a decade. Why would this be, given constant and increasing global warming?”

Long term, Atlantic basin activity is elevated and expected to increase. Hurricane frequency esp. in a small basin like the Atlantic is highly stochastic, so I can see why someone might make an incorrect statement like you’ve made.

There are numerous factors that determine hurricane formation and survival. SST is the main one, there are others. AGW has also led to increased Saharan dust and vert. wind shear in some seasons, which has attenuated the last few atlantic seasons quite a bit.

]]> By: Jim Hunt https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467583 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 17:42:27 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467583 Hi Greg,

Despite your suggestion to the contrary above, Alex is now a category 1 hurricane:

http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/#comment-492635

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Azores.

]]> By: Eric Lund https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467582 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 14:12:21 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467582 Alex is in a location where it’s unusual to see tropical cyclones at any time of year. Most tropical cyclones at that longitude are either spinning up from tropical waves passing well to the south, or recurved storms passing well to the north. The storm is predicted to move through the Azores tonight and tomorrow, then lose tropical characteristics as it moves north toward Greenland.

]]> By: See Noevo https://gregladen.com/blog/2016/01/13/the-atlantic-tropical-storm-season-is-over-except-alex/#comment-467581 Thu, 14 Jan 2016 04:29:13 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=22019#comment-467581 Greg,

In your nearby article you say the Central Pacific’s Hurricane Pali formed due partly to “high sea surface temperatures because of global warming”.

However, I understand hurricane activity in the Atlantic has been well below average for at least a decade. Why would this be, given constant and increasing global warming?

And 2015 seemed like another dud:
“While the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes was only a little below the long-term average activity… many of the named storms were relatively weak and short-lived. As a result, in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin for the season was only about 63 percent of the 1981-2010 median. This makes 2015 a below-average season in terms of ACE.”

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

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