RickaA: Yes – I disagree with consensus climate science you cite as fact. It is not fact, but hypothesis.

… except for the fact that it is an observed fact, not a hypothesis. It ceased being a hypothesis over 100 years ago.

RickaA: And not supported by observations to date.

All observations, without exception, support the fact humans have caused and are causing Earth to warm anomalously.

cosmicomics: Not supported by which observations?

Free Market profit.

cosmicomics: RickA’s game is to try to throw up roadblocks to emissions reduction and adaptation any way he can, while trying to maintain a facade of reason.

Just like Creationists and Flat Earthers, I call it “The I’m Just Asking Questions Evasion.” The goal that these people work towards is to spend 30 seconds of their time to waste 30 minutes of dozens of pro-science peoples’ time. It is the most common behavior among denialists: force the communicators of science to squander their vastly more valuable time and effort and resources where and when that effort is wasted, so that the effort is not applied where it will be effective.

This is why scientists and science communicators are finally talking about “honest inquiry” before they will educate people asking questions or pretending to do so.

SteveP: In the mean time, I think it makes sense to devote some time and effort to looking at the two most likely events ( 1. Next year will be warmer 2. Next year will be cooler) and seeing what prognostications we can make regarding those two outcomes based on our knowledge of other laws of nature with which we may be more familiar. Here are my predictions.”

Alas, the problem is not in predicting the ranking, from warm er to cooler, for the following 2 or 3 years—- that’s easy. The hard part is getting someone to accept your wagers. Year 2016 will likely match, on global average temperature, with year 2015. Year 2017 and year 2018 will be cooler than year 2015 and 2016. To get someone to wager against the propositions you will have to put up (risk) far more than they will.

If you want to give me 9:1 odds, I will wager $100 that year 2016 will be cooler than year 2015. I wouldn’t accept the wager with less favorable odds.

Craig Thomas: RickA thinks heat is leaving the ocean to warm the atmosphere.

Where’s your data, Rick?”

Jesus is the answer! Or, specifically, it must be magic warming both the oceans and the atmosphere— because by gods it for damn sure isn’t CO2, because Obama.

Greg C: Desertphile — wouldn’t deniers just claim NASS GISS temperatures were made up. Still, even RSS and UHA should show records this year or next year. If not, then something fishy is definitely going on.”

That is the most common, most used excuse people gave for not accepting my wagers. It means they believe all of the world’s science organizations that record temperatures globally are part of the conspiracy.

dean: “Just a guess – it’s harder for people to put their own money on the line in a wager like yours than it is to use the money of backers to spread the “no warming” word – and the backers won’t front the dough for the wager. It’s almost as though the people behind the money that funds the loudest denialists know something their mouthpieces don’t.

I am convinced that close to 100% of people who have stated they do not accept the fact that Earth’s climate is changing, and Earth is warming anomalously, actually believe what they assert. I am convinced they know Earth has warmed anomalously, is warming anomalously, will continue to warm anomalously, and that humans are responsible.

In the international predictions markets I had to offer at least 5:1 odds before people would wager against the proposition that Earth is getting warmer. In some cases I had to offer 20:1. And even in those cases, damn few people accepted the contrary position. I had to risk several thousand dollars to gain a few hundred dollars.

I correctly predicted global average temperature ranking for our years, and each year there were fewer people who would bet against Earth setting a new record high temperature. For year 2015 there were so few people willing to wager against a record high being set that most predictions markets didn’t even offer the marker. The few markets that offered a year 2015 record high temperature market opened at 90:10.

Magma: They probably figured it involved a sneaky trick on your part. You know, like the planet warming or something like that.”

Dr. Mann is in charge of warming the planet anomalously; I am in charge of the doughnuts at the conspiracy’s quarterly meetings.

So again, why doesn’t increasing the price on CO2 speed up the transition?

Unless I’ve missed something, nobody said it wouldn’t.

But now you are changing the question.

I am saying a very simple thing: “If you have a government that is committed to reducing CO2, this is how it is more likely to succeed.” Particularly in the USA.

Telling me that your government is no longer committed is an entirely different topic.

And arguing with trolls like RickA about nuclear vs renewables yadda yadda and so on is moving the conversation away from that critical problem. Which is why they do it.