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	Comments on: Global Warming: Record Breaking October Heat	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Chris O'Neill		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473749</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris O'Neill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2015 16:13:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473749</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;How do you know that most of the increased energy does not go to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Then what massive heat source, pray tell, is causing the surface to actually warm?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>How do you know that most of the increased energy does not go to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system.</p></blockquote>
<p>Then what massive heat source, pray tell, is causing the surface to actually warm?</p>
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		<title>
		By: BBD		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473748</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BBD]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Nov 2015 16:45:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473748</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Tom Harris

There are interesting examples of GHG-forced warming from the past that demonstrate - unequivocally - that radiative physics works as expected. The best known of these events is the &lt;a href=&quot;https://sites.google.com/site/thepaleoceneeocenethermalmaxim/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum&lt;/a&gt; or PETM. As a class, these episodes of extreme GHG-forced warming are know as &lt;i&gt;hyperthermals&lt;/i&gt;.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom Harris</p>
<p>There are interesting examples of GHG-forced warming from the past that demonstrate &#8211; unequivocally &#8211; that radiative physics works as expected. The best known of these events is the <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/thepaleoceneeocenethermalmaxim/" rel="nofollow">Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum</a> or PETM. As a class, these episodes of extreme GHG-forced warming are know as <i>hyperthermals</i>.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mal Adapted		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473747</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mal Adapted]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2015 21:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473747</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Mr. Harris,

Mockery aside, and assuming without prejudice that you&#039;re a genuine skeptic: Scott Denning understands that Science cannot know anything with absolute certainty, only with greater or lesser confidence.  Here is his &lt;a href=&quot;http://climatechangenationalforum.org/cause-and-effect-by-scott-denning/#sthash.RHJX6zj5.dpuf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;more contextualized answer&lt;/a&gt; to your question:
&lt;blockquote&gt;..we expect climate to be warmer in the future than in the past because we know that greenhouse gases absorb and then re-emit thermal radiation. As people around the world burn more and more fossil fuels, concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, so that solar energy accumulates under the extra absorbing gas. Scientists expect accumulating heat to cause warming temperatures because we know that when we add heat to things, they change their temperatures.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Science, Mr. Harris, is a method of evaluating competing hypotheses by how well they explain the available evidence without contradicting what is already known with high confidence, and there is a rigorous process for doing so. You are proposing that &quot;the energy being added to the Earth System by increasing CO2 is [not] manifest in a surface temperature increase&quot; because &quot;most of the increased energy [goes] to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system&quot;. You have not adequately supported your hypothesis, and you&#039;re wasting your time and ours arguing here in any case.  If you wish to be taken seriously outside a conference organized by pseudo-skeptics, you&#039;ll need to submit your arguments for publication in more credible refereed venues, such as &lt;a href=&quot;http://mts-ngs.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex?form_type=display_auth_instructions&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Nature Geoscience&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&quot;http://grl-submit.agu.org/cgi-bin/main.plex?form_type=display_auth_instructions&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Geophysical Research Letters&lt;/a&gt;. 

Keep in mind, though, that Science is superior to other knowledge systems largely because it&#039;s a way of trying not to fool yourself (&quot;The first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool&quot; -Feynman).  It relies on &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersubjective_verifiability&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;intersubjective verification&lt;/a&gt; to counter ubiquitous self-deception.  If you can&#039;t persuade your referees of the merit of your ideas, then it&#039;s highly likely that you&#039;re fooling yourself.  If you&#039;re unwilling to accept that, then you are no scientist, nor are you a genuine skeptic.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Mr. Harris,</p>
<p>Mockery aside, and assuming without prejudice that you&#8217;re a genuine skeptic: Scott Denning understands that Science cannot know anything with absolute certainty, only with greater or lesser confidence.  Here is his <a href="http://climatechangenationalforum.org/cause-and-effect-by-scott-denning/#sthash.RHJX6zj5.dpuf" rel="nofollow">more contextualized answer</a> to your question:</p>
<blockquote><p>..we expect climate to be warmer in the future than in the past because we know that greenhouse gases absorb and then re-emit thermal radiation. As people around the world burn more and more fossil fuels, concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, so that solar energy accumulates under the extra absorbing gas. Scientists expect accumulating heat to cause warming temperatures because we know that when we add heat to things, they change their temperatures.</p></blockquote>
<p>Science, Mr. Harris, is a method of evaluating competing hypotheses by how well they explain the available evidence without contradicting what is already known with high confidence, and there is a rigorous process for doing so. You are proposing that &#8220;the energy being added to the Earth System by increasing CO2 is [not] manifest in a surface temperature increase&#8221; because &#8220;most of the increased energy [goes] to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system&#8221;. You have not adequately supported your hypothesis, and you&#8217;re wasting your time and ours arguing here in any case.  If you wish to be taken seriously outside a conference organized by pseudo-skeptics, you&#8217;ll need to submit your arguments for publication in more credible refereed venues, such as <a href="http://mts-ngs.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex?form_type=display_auth_instructions" rel="nofollow">Nature Geoscience</a> or <a href="http://grl-submit.agu.org/cgi-bin/main.plex?form_type=display_auth_instructions" rel="nofollow">Geophysical Research Letters</a>. </p>
<p>Keep in mind, though, that Science is superior to other knowledge systems largely because it&#8217;s a way of trying not to fool yourself (&#8220;The first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool&#8221; -Feynman).  It relies on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intersubjective_verifiability" rel="nofollow">intersubjective verification</a> to counter ubiquitous self-deception.  If you can&#8217;t persuade your referees of the merit of your ideas, then it&#8217;s highly likely that you&#8217;re fooling yourself.  If you&#8217;re unwilling to accept that, then you are no scientist, nor are you a genuine skeptic.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473746</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Nov 2015 19:43:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473746</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;... the surface could actually cool by forced convection.&lt;/i&gt;

Continue, please!

&lt;i&gt;However, measurements consistently show that it has &lt;b&gt;not&lt;/b&gt; cooled, but has instead warmed.&lt;/i&gt;

Now, answer the question posed to you, Tom Harris:

&lt;i&gt;What is causing the increasing trend in surface temperature?&lt;/i&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8230; the surface could actually cool by forced convection.</i></p>
<p>Continue, please!</p>
<p><i>However, measurements consistently show that it has <b>not</b> cooled, but has instead warmed.</i></p>
<p>Now, answer the question posed to you, Tom Harris:</p>
<p><i>What is causing the increasing trend in surface temperature?</i></p>
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		<title>
		By: Tom Harris		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473745</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tom Harris]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2015 22:18:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473745</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[During the question period at the Heartland conference where he presented, I asked Professor Scott Denning, atmospheric scientists at Colorado State University the question, &quot;How do you know that the energy being added to the Earth system by increasing CO2 is manifest in a surface temperature increase?&quot; I followed it with, &quot;How do you know that most of the increased energy does not go to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system.&quot;

He answered that we do not. So stop with your mocking answers.

So, this means that, if a significant portion of the increased energy went into wind speed rise at the surface, the surface could actually cool by forced convection.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During the question period at the Heartland conference where he presented, I asked Professor Scott Denning, atmospheric scientists at Colorado State University the question, &#8220;How do you know that the energy being added to the Earth system by increasing CO2 is manifest in a surface temperature increase?&#8221; I followed it with, &#8220;How do you know that most of the increased energy does not go to increasing wind speed, ice melting or some other energy sink in the Earth system.&#8221;</p>
<p>He answered that we do not. So stop with your mocking answers.</p>
<p>So, this means that, if a significant portion of the increased energy went into wind speed rise at the surface, the surface could actually cool by forced convection.</p>
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		By: NOAA: October Warmest On Record &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473744</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[NOAA: October Warmest On Record &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Nov 2015 17:24:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473744</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] has just followed JMA and NASA in reporting on October&#8217;s average global surface temperature. The surface [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] has just followed JMA and NASA in reporting on October&#8217;s average global surface temperature. The surface [&#8230;]</p>
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		By: Engineered Winter Weather Whiplash &#187; Engineered Winter Weather Whiplash &#124; Geoengineering Watch		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473743</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Engineered Winter Weather Whiplash &#187; Engineered Winter Weather Whiplash &#124; Geoengineering Watch]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2015 20:55:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473743</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] Denial of this fact is no different than denial of climate engineering. Here are the facts,&#160;October set heat records around the globe (following September&#039;s record shattering heat). The beginning of November was in the same [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Denial of this fact is no different than denial of climate engineering. Here are the facts,&nbsp;October set heat records around the globe (following September&#039;s record shattering heat). The beginning of November was in the same [&#8230;]</p>
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		By: NASA Reports Astonishing Uptick In Surface Temperature &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473742</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[NASA Reports Astonishing Uptick In Surface Temperature &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Nov 2015 02:13:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473742</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] knew October was going to be hot. Only hours ago the Japanese Meteorological Agency came out with their data showing October 2016 to be the hottest October in their database. I&#8217;ve not checked yet to see if it was the [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] knew October was going to be hot. Only hours ago the Japanese Meteorological Agency came out with their data showing October 2016 to be the hottest October in their database. I&#8217;ve not checked yet to see if it was the [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: Chris O'Neill		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473741</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Chris O'Neill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2015 23:59:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473741</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;The Japan Meteorological Agency is one such group, and they have just released their updated monthly data for October.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

So October 2015 was 0.19? warmer than October 2014 by JMA&#039;s estimate. If GISTemp has the same corresponding rise then its October 2015 anomaly will be 1.05?. That&#039;s 1.05? of global warming compared with the average of the 50s, 60s, 70s (and 1980).

I wonder what will happen eventually.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>The Japan Meteorological Agency is one such group, and they have just released their updated monthly data for October.</p></blockquote>
<p>So October 2015 was 0.19? warmer than October 2014 by JMA&#8217;s estimate. If GISTemp has the same corresponding rise then its October 2015 anomaly will be 1.05?. That&#8217;s 1.05? of global warming compared with the average of the 50s, 60s, 70s (and 1980).</p>
<p>I wonder what will happen eventually.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mal Adapted		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-473740</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mal Adapted]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2015 22:55:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21806#comment-473740</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;a href=&quot;http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-626871&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Tom Harris&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;blockquote&gt;How do you know that the energy being added to the Earth system by increasing CO2 is manifest in a surface temperature increase?&lt;/blockquote&gt;
In a word, Mr. Harris, &quot;science&quot;.  It&#039;s the only way we have of knowing anything about the Universe that&#039;s better than divination with a sheep&#039;s liver.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/11/16/global-warming-record-breaking-october-heat/#comment-626871" rel="nofollow">Tom Harris</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>How do you know that the energy being added to the Earth system by increasing CO2 is manifest in a surface temperature increase?</p></blockquote>
<p>In a word, Mr. Harris, &#8220;science&#8221;.  It&#8217;s the only way we have of knowing anything about the Universe that&#8217;s better than divination with a sheep&#8217;s liver.</p>
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