http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-06/body-found-in-search-for-us-ship-missing-off-the-bahamas/6830082

It is presumed sunk, one body and debris found the rest of the crew missing.

The northward winds are on the east side of the hurricane’s eye. On the west side the winds are southbound, so any tidal surge in the Chesapeake should probably be manageable. Considering the current projected path of the storm, as of 10/2, @1:15 PM, only the winds on the north side of the eye should be blowing toward the east coast. Rough surf and maybe some moderately higher tides could be expected, but I don’t believe it will much worse than that! But then again, what do I know!!!

Before Sandy, many people never recognized the threat from storm surges. Rain flooding is also something that many people think that they are safe from, but if a rain system stalls, if can dump historically high amounts of water in areas that just aren’t prepared for them, with often unexpected results. Seeing a house float by and disintegrate in a river that had only been a little creek a week before can be eye opening.

So remember what Frank Zappa sarcastically sang, “It can’t happen here…”

“Arrogant people building houses on the Outer Banks should be forced to suck up their own losses, rather than foisting the costs on more ensile people.”

Yeah, you tell everyone where they can and can’t live and make assumptions about who’s able to build where and show your compassionate side so brightly here, Mark Schooley! /sarc.

‘Spose you blame people who build homes near forests for having them burn in wildfires and those who build houses near Mt St Helens and other volcanoes hen their homes are destroyed by eruptions too? Nice of you to presume the people building these homes haven’t already taken steps and designed their homes to handle at least a certain level of storm activity. Guess you are an expert in this area – no?

(Seriously, I’m guessing you ain’t.)

“Historically, people living more inland were thankful for the rain, which replenished life.”

Yes – but as Socrates apparently said “all things in moderation including moderation.” There can still be too much of it obviously. Well, I’d have thought obviously.

“Chincoteague ponies are still around after 400 years, despite numerous hurricanes. Why are they still around? Our Hurricane Belt is the richest species biome in North America. In Florida alone, we have Magnificant Frigate birds, bald and golden eagles, ibises, cranes, white and blue great herons, plus pet-woner released amazon, macaw and African Grey parrots, pythons, anacondas, batfish, angel fish and lion fish. Drive through the Keys, and you can’t help it if you run over a Central American iguana.”

I bet you could avoid running over iguanas and other wildlife if you, say drive carefully and slowly and keep an eye out for them!

That’s all very nice and interesting (lucky you!) but I’m not sure it really has anything to do with the topic or storm situation here. No body is predicting a single storm or even a series of increasingly bad ones is going to send most of the local fauna extinct far as I’ve heard. I certainly don’t see Greg Laden saying otherwise.

That a storm can still be a disaster without sending species extinct should I think be pretty axiomatic.

“If global warming enables coral reefs to form off the Carolinas, will that be a tragedy? Have you ever dived on a coral reef? Have you ever been surrounded by a school of a few hundred great barracuda? Is it scary? Not really, it is awesome.”

That’s a really big IF there – hence the emphasis added – not sure if that will happen and dubious given the likely impact of ocean acidification. Coral reefs are wonderful although I’ve never been scuba diving in my life. (Would love to do so one day.) I have seen and enjoyed the Great Barrier Reef in my home nation – which is threatened by the impacts of Global Overheating.

It could well also be tragic if reefs formed on sunken cities and over lost beaches, wetlands and other things at the expense of other biomes.

“California is seeing a never-witneesessd-before-in-modern-history profusion of humpback and blue whales. Apparently it is due to catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. Greg doesn’t get to see these things in Minnesota.”

And you don’t get to see a lot of other things that have severely negative impacts obviously. Doesn’t mean they aren’t happening or should be ignored when weighing up these pros and cons.

Your comments here are nothing but annoying and have no value whatsoever. You are a bad person. You have no filter, you have no sense, you are as dumb as a broken brick, and you have no redeeming qualities.

And I will now make you disappear. Don’t come back.

Important to note, as you know, we can detect nervousness in the NWS when they stray from the usual format in their discussions, as has happened here.

and could arrive late tomorrow

If the NHC thought the hurricane would arrive tomorrow, watches if not warnings would already be posted. What they are saying is that Joaquin may reach the US east coast as soon as Saturday, rather than Monday as the official forecast track indicates. Hurricane watches are normally issued 36 to 48 hours before hurricane conditions are expected.

What it does mean is that people in exposed locations (Outer Banks, Eastern Shore, Jersey Shore, south shore of Long Island, Martha’s Vineyard/Nantucket, Cape Cod) need to be ready to act quickly when Joaquin makes its turn to the north.

Where I live we’ve been short on rain all spring and summer, so this isn’t so bad (as long as we don’t take a direct hit). But other places nearby have had quite a bit more rain, so this could be trouble for them.