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	Comments on: Skeptics Dare Heartland Institute to Take Up $25,000 Climate Challenge	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Obstreperous Applesauce		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470406</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Obstreperous Applesauce]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 16:32:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470406</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;...why are deniers so stupid and/or mendacious that they can never, ever let this false meme die...&quot;

RE teh stupid: 
IMO, people aren&#039;t sufficiently trained to distinguish valid logic from specious reasoning and rhetorical devices. Nor are they sufficiently trained in scientific values.

RE teh pants afire:
Aeon magazine has an article which, while specifically addressing violence, happens to explain a whole lot of what goes on in the world, I think. Blame people&#039;s unsophisticated and parochial views of morality:

&quot;By ‘moral’, I mean that people are violent because they feel they must be; because they feel that their violence is obligatory. They know that they are harming fully human beings. Nonetheless, they believe they should. Violence does not stem from a psychopathic lack of morality. Quite the reverse: it comes from the exercise of perceived moral rights and obligations.&quot; &lt;a href=&quot;http://aeon.co/magazine/philosophy/people-do-violence-because-their-moral-codes-demand-it/?utm_source=feedburner&#038;utm_medium=feed&#038;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AeonMagazineEssays+%28Aeon+Magazine+Essays%29&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;aeon&lt;/a&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;&#8230;why are deniers so stupid and/or mendacious that they can never, ever let this false meme die&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>RE teh stupid:<br />
IMO, people aren&#8217;t sufficiently trained to distinguish valid logic from specious reasoning and rhetorical devices. Nor are they sufficiently trained in scientific values.</p>
<p>RE teh pants afire:<br />
Aeon magazine has an article which, while specifically addressing violence, happens to explain a whole lot of what goes on in the world, I think. Blame people&#8217;s unsophisticated and parochial views of morality:</p>
<p>&#8220;By ‘moral’, I mean that people are violent because they feel they must be; because they feel that their violence is obligatory. They know that they are harming fully human beings. Nonetheless, they believe they should. Violence does not stem from a psychopathic lack of morality. Quite the reverse: it comes from the exercise of perceived moral rights and obligations.&#8221; <a href="http://aeon.co/magazine/philosophy/people-do-violence-because-their-moral-codes-demand-it/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+AeonMagazineEssays+%28Aeon+Magazine+Essays%29" rel="nofollow">aeon</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Desertphile		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470405</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Desertphile]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 16:10:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470405</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470403&quot;&gt;Bernard J.&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;i&gt;&lt;b&gt;&quot;That’s because the &#039;level of warming&#039; is never &#039;significantly different from zero&#039; in anything less that 12 years for any &#039;most recent… period&#039; and often it’s not &#039;significantly different from zero&#039; for 18-20 years or more....&quot;&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/i&gt;

Indeed. Deniers of observed reality also love to misquote Dr Phil Jones on the subject. Deniers love to conflate anomalous warming that is not statistically significant above a=.05 to &quot;no warming at all.&quot;

&lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;b&gt;BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

BBC: How confident are you that warming has taken place and that humans are mainly responsible?

Phil Jones: I&#039;m 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 - there&#039;s evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity. Phil Jones is saying there is a warming trend but it&#039;s not statistically significant. He&#039;s not talking about whether warming is actually happening. He&#039;s discussing our ability to detect that warming trend in a noisy signal over a short period. To demonstrate this, look at the HadCRUT temperature record from 1995 to 2009. The linear trend is that of warming. However, the temperature record is very noisy with lots of short term variability. The noisy signal means that over a short period, the uncertainty of the warming trend is almost as large as the actual trend. Hence it&#039;s considered statistically insignificant. Over longer time periods, the uncertainty is less and the trend is more statistically significant.&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470403">Bernard J.</a>.</p>
<p><i><b>&#8220;That’s because the &#8216;level of warming&#8217; is never &#8216;significantly different from zero&#8217; in anything less that 12 years for any &#8216;most recent… period&#8217; and often it’s not &#8216;significantly different from zero&#8217; for 18-20 years or more&#8230;.&#8221;</b></i></p>
<p>Indeed. Deniers of observed reality also love to misquote Dr Phil Jones on the subject. Deniers love to conflate anomalous warming that is not statistically significant above a=.05 to &#8220;no warming at all.&#8221;</p>
<blockquote><p><b>BBC: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming</p>
<p>Phil Jones: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.</p>
<p>BBC: How confident are you that warming has taken place and that humans are mainly responsible?</p>
<p>Phil Jones: I&#8217;m 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 &#8211; there&#8217;s evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity. Phil Jones is saying there is a warming trend but it&#8217;s not statistically significant. He&#8217;s not talking about whether warming is actually happening. He&#8217;s discussing our ability to detect that warming trend in a noisy signal over a short period. To demonstrate this, look at the HadCRUT temperature record from 1995 to 2009. The linear trend is that of warming. However, the temperature record is very noisy with lots of short term variability. The noisy signal means that over a short period, the uncertainty of the warming trend is almost as large as the actual trend. Hence it&#8217;s considered statistically insignificant. Over longer time periods, the uncertainty is less and the trend is more statistically significant.</b></p></blockquote>
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		<title>
		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470404</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 15:28:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470404</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Because they fear, hate, and are desperate to avoid the truth.

The truth hurts.  Hence, like a 3-year-old, they simply deny the way things are, childishly thinking that doing so will make this unpleasant thing just go away.  

They&#039;d be better off running to their mommies for comfort.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Because they fear, hate, and are desperate to avoid the truth.</p>
<p>The truth hurts.  Hence, like a 3-year-old, they simply deny the way things are, childishly thinking that doing so will make this unpleasant thing just go away.  </p>
<p>They&#8217;d be better off running to their mommies for comfort.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Bernard J.		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470403</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bernard J.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 14:24:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470403</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;blockquote&gt;The level of warming in the most recent 15 year period [since 1998] is not significantly different from zero...&lt;/blockquote&gt;

That&#039;s because the &quot;level of warming&quot; is &lt;i&gt;never&lt;/i&gt; &quot;significantly different from zero&quot; in anything less that 12 years for any &quot;most recent... period&quot; and often it&#039;s not &quot;significantly different from zero&quot; for 18-20 years or more:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/resolving-met-office-confusion.html#89481

But it&#039;s still warming.

&lt;blockquote&gt;...and “natural variability is responsible for late twentieth century warming and the cessation of warming since 1998.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

No, &quot;natural variability&quot; is responsible for making it impossible to &lt;i&gt;statistically &lt;b&gt;identify&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/i&gt; the warming on timescales that are too short.  In &lt;i&gt;any&lt;/i&gt; sufficiently short period of time there is a statistical &quot;cessation of warming&quot;.  But it&#039;s only a statistical cessation, not a physical one.

FFS, why are deniers so stupid and/or mendacious that they can never, ever let this false meme die, no matter how many times it&#039;s pointed out to them that they&#039;re reversing the directionality of their alimentary canals?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>The level of warming in the most recent 15 year period [since 1998] is not significantly different from zero&#8230;</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s because the &#8220;level of warming&#8221; is <i>never</i> &#8220;significantly different from zero&#8221; in anything less that 12 years for any &#8220;most recent&#8230; period&#8221; and often it&#8217;s not &#8220;significantly different from zero&#8221; for 18-20 years or more:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/resolving-met-office-confusion.html#89481" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.skepticalscience.com/resolving-met-office-confusion.html#89481</a></p>
<p>But it&#8217;s still warming.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8230;and “natural variability is responsible for late twentieth century warming and the cessation of warming since 1998.</p></blockquote>
<p>No, &#8220;natural variability&#8221; is responsible for making it impossible to <i>statistically <b>identify</b></i> the warming on timescales that are too short.  In <i>any</i> sufficiently short period of time there is a statistical &#8220;cessation of warming&#8221;.  But it&#8217;s only a statistical cessation, not a physical one.</p>
<p>FFS, why are deniers so stupid and/or mendacious that they can never, ever let this false meme die, no matter how many times it&#8217;s pointed out to them that they&#8217;re reversing the directionality of their alimentary canals?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mal Adapted		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470402</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mal Adapted]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 02:23:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470402</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Greg, is handjob a sock for Tom Harris?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg, is handjob a sock for Tom Harris?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Desertphile		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470401</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Desertphile]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2015 23:42:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470401</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470394&quot;&gt;handjive&lt;/a&gt;.

&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;Al Gore likens skeptics to racists, homophobes and violent alcoholics&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;

No.

Also, we&#039;re so very sorry but the word &quot;skeptic&quot; is already taken: you deniers will have to use one that isn&#039;t taken already. Looks like &quot;denier&quot; is available: try that one.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470394">handjive</a>.</p>
<p><b><i>&#8220;Al Gore likens skeptics to racists, homophobes and violent alcoholics</i></b></p>
<p>No.</p>
<p>Also, we&#8217;re so very sorry but the word &#8220;skeptic&#8221; is already taken: you deniers will have to use one that isn&#8217;t taken already. Looks like &#8220;denier&#8221; is available: try that one.</p>
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		<title>
		By: dean		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470400</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[dean]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2015 23:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470400</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Yes, he likened them regarding their denial.
How is that too complicated for you?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes, he likened them regarding their denial.<br />
How is that too complicated for you?</p>
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		<title>
		By: handjive		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470399</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[handjive]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2015 22:06:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470399</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Hey Brainstorms.
Here in Australia, we had floods this year.
Sadly, lives were destroyed, dreams dashed, death &#038; destruction.
Like Texas, we were told the drought was permanent and not to expect any more rain because of carbon(sic) Global Warming.

Australia&#039;s Bureau of Meteorology completely failed to predict any floods, with only claims of drought.

Australia declared drought free
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/its-official-australia-no-longer-in-drought-20120427-1xpsp.html

Texas, Oklahoma Drought ‘All But Over’
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/texas-oklahoma-drought-over-19017

New Zealand&#039;s worst drought in 30 years is over
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-06/nz-drought-over/4671688

Confidence returning as drought lifts in small part of Queensland&#039;s cattle industry
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/confidence-returns-to-cattle-sale/6496942

Australia is apparently &quot;the canary in the coalmine&quot;:

Climate Change and the End of Australia
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/climate-change-and-the-end-of-australia-20111003

And, yes, Rolling Stone is not &quot;scientific&quot;, but Prof. David Karoly, of the &#039;canary&#039; quote, is.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Brainstorms.<br />
Here in Australia, we had floods this year.<br />
Sadly, lives were destroyed, dreams dashed, death &amp; destruction.<br />
Like Texas, we were told the drought was permanent and not to expect any more rain because of carbon(sic) Global Warming.</p>
<p>Australia&#8217;s Bureau of Meteorology completely failed to predict any floods, with only claims of drought.</p>
<p>Australia declared drought free<br />
<a href="http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/its-official-australia-no-longer-in-drought-20120427-1xpsp.html" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/its-official-australia-no-longer-in-drought-20120427-1xpsp.html</a></p>
<p>Texas, Oklahoma Drought ‘All But Over’<br />
<a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/texas-oklahoma-drought-over-19017" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.climatecentral.org/news/texas-oklahoma-drought-over-19017</a></p>
<p>New Zealand&#8217;s worst drought in 30 years is over<br />
<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-06/nz-drought-over/4671688" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-06/nz-drought-over/4671688</a></p>
<p>Confidence returning as drought lifts in small part of Queensland&#8217;s cattle industry<br />
<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/confidence-returns-to-cattle-sale/6496942" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-26/confidence-returns-to-cattle-sale/6496942</a></p>
<p>Australia is apparently &#8220;the canary in the coalmine&#8221;:</p>
<p>Climate Change and the End of Australia<br />
<a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/climate-change-and-the-end-of-australia-20111003" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/climate-change-and-the-end-of-australia-20111003</a></p>
<p>And, yes, Rolling Stone is not &#8220;scientific&#8221;, but Prof. David Karoly, of the &#8216;canary&#8217; quote, is.</p>
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		By: handjive		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470398</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[handjive]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2015 21:47:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470398</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@dean June 17, 2015 #33
Likens:
verb (used with object)
1. to represent as similar or like; compare:
to liken someone to a weasel.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liken 

Gore wasn&#039;t talking about kindergarten teachers.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@dean June 17, 2015 #33<br />
Likens:<br />
verb (used with object)<br />
1. to represent as similar or like; compare:<br />
to liken someone to a weasel.<br />
<a href="http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liken" rel="nofollow ugc">http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liken</a> </p>
<p>Gore wasn&#8217;t talking about kindergarten teachers.</p>
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		By: Brainstorms		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/#comment-470397</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brainstorms]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2015 21:47:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21266#comment-470397</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[No, he&#039;s probably talking about exciting summer holidays in Texas now.

After all, they&#039;re unconcerned about bleak outlooks and severity... as they watch their houses float by.  And dead neighbors floating along with them.

No worries, right, handjive?  Yup.  But damn, it&#039;s hard to bury your head in the sand when the sand is under 6 feet of floodwater, ain&#039;t it?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, he&#8217;s probably talking about exciting summer holidays in Texas now.</p>
<p>After all, they&#8217;re unconcerned about bleak outlooks and severity&#8230; as they watch their houses float by.  And dead neighbors floating along with them.</p>
<p>No worries, right, handjive?  Yup.  But damn, it&#8217;s hard to bury your head in the sand when the sand is under 6 feet of floodwater, ain&#8217;t it?</p>
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