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	Comments on: The risk of hot and cold weather	</title>
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		By: Bjorn Lomborg&#8217;s Deception About &#8216;Climate and Health Assessment&#8217; in Wall Street Journal &#8211; Enjeux énergies et environnement		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477416</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bjorn Lomborg&#8217;s Deception About &#8216;Climate and Health Assessment&#8217; in Wall Street Journal &#8211; Enjeux énergies et environnement]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Apr 2016 16:51:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477416</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] Lomborg attacks the recently released Climate and Health Assessment, a comprehensive overview of how climate change impacts the American public by the US Global Change Research Program. He attacks the report’s finding that heat-related deaths from rising temperatures will outnumber the avoided cold-related deaths, which has been debated among legitimate scientists (see this piece or this piece). [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] Lomborg attacks the recently released Climate and Health Assessment, a comprehensive overview of how climate change impacts the American public by the US Global Change Research Program. He attacks the report’s finding that heat-related deaths from rising temperatures will outnumber the avoided cold-related deaths, which has been debated among legitimate scientists (see this piece or this piece). [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: De risico&#8217;s van hitte en kou &#124; Klimaatverandering		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477415</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[De risico&#8217;s van hitte en kou &#124; Klimaatverandering]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Jun 2015 14:38:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477415</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] hierover in de blogosfeer bij Greg Laden en bij Sou op [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] hierover in de blogosfeer bij Greg Laden en bij Sou op [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: Bernard J.		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477414</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Bernard J.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2015 07:51:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477414</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Jane at #15.

No.

Humans evolved adaptations to heat when proto-humans learned not to drag their knuckles across the savanah:

http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Brown8/publication/234147519_Human_Heat_Tolerance_An_Anthropological_Perspective/links/00b49521512d5e4c42000000.pdf

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306456504000907

but being heat-adapted is different to being able to deal with increased mean global temperature:

http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full

The problem is that in relative terms we&#039;re already operating near the physiological ceiling for temperature when &#8805;2 ? annual extreme events are considered.  Greg&#039;s already indicated this - when it comes to heat mammals and especially humans are already bouncing around near the ceiling, and the ability to adapt to warm or cool mean-temperature cliamtes does not confer the ability to crash through the metabolic physics of heat dispersal.

Nice try to distract from the point but burying your head in the desert sand won&#039;t change the direction in which the wind is blowing.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jane at #15.</p>
<p>No.</p>
<p>Humans evolved adaptations to heat when proto-humans learned not to drag their knuckles across the savanah:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Brown8/publication/234147519_Human_Heat_Tolerance_An_Anthropological_Perspective/links/00b49521512d5e4c42000000.pdf" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Daniel_Brown8/publication/234147519_Human_Heat_Tolerance_An_Anthropological_Perspective/links/00b49521512d5e4c42000000.pdf</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306456504000907" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306456504000907</a></p>
<p>but being heat-adapted is different to being able to deal with increased mean global temperature:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.full</a></p>
<p>The problem is that in relative terms we&#8217;re already operating near the physiological ceiling for temperature when &ge;2 ? annual extreme events are considered.  Greg&#8217;s already indicated this &#8211; when it comes to heat mammals and especially humans are already bouncing around near the ceiling, and the ability to adapt to warm or cool mean-temperature cliamtes does not confer the ability to crash through the metabolic physics of heat dispersal.</p>
<p>Nice try to distract from the point but burying your head in the desert sand won&#8217;t change the direction in which the wind is blowing.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Marktime		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477413</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Marktime]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 May 2015 11:13:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477413</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This is what Greg is talking about.:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/india-heatwave-deaths-heatstroke-temperatures]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is what Greg is talking about.:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/india-heatwave-deaths-heatstroke-temperatures" rel="nofollow ugc">http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/25/india-heatwave-deaths-heatstroke-temperatures</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: jane		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477412</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jane]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 19:39:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477412</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[A couple of problems with this study.  First, it sounds like the researchers seem to have simply declared as a premise that whatever season at which deaths were lowest had the &quot;optimum temperature.&quot;  Or rather, even worse, this &quot;21-day lag period&quot; sounds like it could mean that  if deaths are lowest on March 1 in a given country, the temperature may be assumed to have been at its best on Feb. 7.  Hard to see why the deadly stress of environmental variation should take that long to kill you.  

Well, whatever.  The huge problem with this presumption is that many other things fluctuate seasonally: availability of fresh food, access to physical activity or need for manual labor, parasite and pathogen loads, social activities including warfare and reproduction, sunlight exposure and vitamin D levels (a big one), etc.  Attributing all excess deaths above a seasonal minimum to the harmful effects of imperfect temperature is utterly unjustified.

Second, I would bet that if they did look at each nation separately, they found different optimal temperatures in different countries, despite the limited and nonrepresentative range of countries included.  It is a well-known fact that what temperatures you perceive as &quot;too hot&quot; or &quot;too cold&quot; are affected by your physical and cultural adaptations.  People today regularly live in places where it gets hot enough that some doomers claim humans will be unable to survive in lands that become that hot due to climate change (and indeed, fat white AC-habituated people in T-shirts would die pretty fast out of doors there).  Very possibly those people&#039;s ideal temperature from a health perspective, if it could be identified, would be higher than that of the Lapplanders.

There are unfortunate practical and philosophical implications of the opinion they&#039;re promoting.  First, the attribution of all deaths above a yearly minimum to temperature variation teaches believers that we are awfully fragile flowers who can&#039;t bear more than tiny environmental fluctuations before we start dropping over.  This belief can only encourage the global wealthy to view high heating in the winter and aggressive air-conditioning as Needs (like my mother-in-law who &quot;needs&quot; to heat to 78 and then, blech, A/C down to 68).  &quot;You suggest setting the A/C higher and using a fan?  Obviously you want to kill Granny!  Death Panels!&quot;  It&#039;s been argued that attempting to scare people into taking action on climate change is an ineffective tactic; if so, it&#039;s especially futile to scare thanatophobic Americans in ways that encourage them to see health and life as dependent upon burning more fossil fuels.

Finally, a minor semantic or philosophical issue.  One may suspect that any &quot;excess&quot; deaths that are genuinely attributable to non-extreme seasonal temperature variations are of frail individuals who would likely have died in the relatively near future anyway.  This raises the question of whether we should view death rates as being &quot;tragically increased&quot; year-round except for a brief moment of &quot;normalcy&quot; in late spring, say, or &quot;happily reduced&quot; from normal during that specially salubrious season of late spring.  I find the latter more congenial because (a) it does not encourage the common American delusion that mortality is optional, and (b) it does not encourage us to view the real world outside the glass windows as an inimical environment lying in wait to kill us.  (This is good for environmentalism; you protect what you care about or perceive as beneficial, not what you perceive as dangerous to you, so people who just hide indoors in the nice safe heating and A/C do not end up being people who will sacrifice much to save the biosphere.)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A couple of problems with this study.  First, it sounds like the researchers seem to have simply declared as a premise that whatever season at which deaths were lowest had the &#8220;optimum temperature.&#8221;  Or rather, even worse, this &#8220;21-day lag period&#8221; sounds like it could mean that  if deaths are lowest on March 1 in a given country, the temperature may be assumed to have been at its best on Feb. 7.  Hard to see why the deadly stress of environmental variation should take that long to kill you.  </p>
<p>Well, whatever.  The huge problem with this presumption is that many other things fluctuate seasonally: availability of fresh food, access to physical activity or need for manual labor, parasite and pathogen loads, social activities including warfare and reproduction, sunlight exposure and vitamin D levels (a big one), etc.  Attributing all excess deaths above a seasonal minimum to the harmful effects of imperfect temperature is utterly unjustified.</p>
<p>Second, I would bet that if they did look at each nation separately, they found different optimal temperatures in different countries, despite the limited and nonrepresentative range of countries included.  It is a well-known fact that what temperatures you perceive as &#8220;too hot&#8221; or &#8220;too cold&#8221; are affected by your physical and cultural adaptations.  People today regularly live in places where it gets hot enough that some doomers claim humans will be unable to survive in lands that become that hot due to climate change (and indeed, fat white AC-habituated people in T-shirts would die pretty fast out of doors there).  Very possibly those people&#8217;s ideal temperature from a health perspective, if it could be identified, would be higher than that of the Lapplanders.</p>
<p>There are unfortunate practical and philosophical implications of the opinion they&#8217;re promoting.  First, the attribution of all deaths above a yearly minimum to temperature variation teaches believers that we are awfully fragile flowers who can&#8217;t bear more than tiny environmental fluctuations before we start dropping over.  This belief can only encourage the global wealthy to view high heating in the winter and aggressive air-conditioning as Needs (like my mother-in-law who &#8220;needs&#8221; to heat to 78 and then, blech, A/C down to 68).  &#8220;You suggest setting the A/C higher and using a fan?  Obviously you want to kill Granny!  Death Panels!&#8221;  It&#8217;s been argued that attempting to scare people into taking action on climate change is an ineffective tactic; if so, it&#8217;s especially futile to scare thanatophobic Americans in ways that encourage them to see health and life as dependent upon burning more fossil fuels.</p>
<p>Finally, a minor semantic or philosophical issue.  One may suspect that any &#8220;excess&#8221; deaths that are genuinely attributable to non-extreme seasonal temperature variations are of frail individuals who would likely have died in the relatively near future anyway.  This raises the question of whether we should view death rates as being &#8220;tragically increased&#8221; year-round except for a brief moment of &#8220;normalcy&#8221; in late spring, say, or &#8220;happily reduced&#8221; from normal during that specially salubrious season of late spring.  I find the latter more congenial because (a) it does not encourage the common American delusion that mortality is optional, and (b) it does not encourage us to view the real world outside the glass windows as an inimical environment lying in wait to kill us.  (This is good for environmentalism; you protect what you care about or perceive as beneficial, not what you perceive as dangerous to you, so people who just hide indoors in the nice safe heating and A/C do not end up being people who will sacrifice much to save the biosphere.)</p>
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		<title>
		By: dean		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477411</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[dean]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 19:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477411</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;An airborne pathogen with a high infection rate would have been much much worse.&quot;

How does the length of time from exposure to the onset of symptoms play into this? It would seem that the &quot;lag time&quot; needs to be large enough so that even when the infected travel by air they are able to get out and mingle in a new population before they go down.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;An airborne pathogen with a high infection rate would have been much much worse.&#8221;</p>
<p>How does the length of time from exposure to the onset of symptoms play into this? It would seem that the &#8220;lag time&#8221; needs to be large enough so that even when the infected travel by air they are able to get out and mingle in a new population before they go down.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477410</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 18:26:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477410</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[As pandemics go, Ebola wasn&#039;t that bad. It was very difficult for Ebola to go very far beyond the initially affected areas.  An airborne pathogen with a high infection rate would have been much much worse.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As pandemics go, Ebola wasn&#8217;t that bad. It was very difficult for Ebola to go very far beyond the initially affected areas.  An airborne pathogen with a high infection rate would have been much much worse.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Donal		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477409</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 17:47:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477409</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[There&#039;s an old proverb:

When Christmas is white
The graveyard is lean;
But fat is the graveyard
When Christmas is green.

I always interpreted it to mean that a good, cold winter kills the germs, and I have wondered whether a warmer, moister climate means a lot of newer, warm-weather germs and insects to deliver disease. Add to that the US reluctance to keep up with infrastructure, and willingness to shut off people&#039;s water service and you have the makings of pandemics that aren&#039;t as scary as Ebola, but that could still kill a lot of unlucky people.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s an old proverb:</p>
<p>When Christmas is white<br />
The graveyard is lean;<br />
But fat is the graveyard<br />
When Christmas is green.</p>
<p>I always interpreted it to mean that a good, cold winter kills the germs, and I have wondered whether a warmer, moister climate means a lot of newer, warm-weather germs and insects to deliver disease. Add to that the US reluctance to keep up with infrastructure, and willingness to shut off people&#8217;s water service and you have the makings of pandemics that aren&#8217;t as scary as Ebola, but that could still kill a lot of unlucky people.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Des Carne		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477408</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Des Carne]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 16:30:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477408</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[This analysis does not seem to deal with the issue of the danger of higher nighttime minima, especially in hot climates.  During waking hours adaptation to or toleration of extremes of heat are possible, but cause stress, for which relief and recovery requires night-time maxima below the level of stress.  Daytime extremes vary more than night time minima, the average level of which is critical to human survival in hot climates.  So also is dew point - wet bulb temperatures over 30C are barely tolerable - 36C is fatal.  Wetbulb temperatures reached 32C over the China sea last summer, very close to the limit.  Nighttime minima can be as high as 28C (wetbulb 26C) in my former home Darwin during the West season, offering little relief from daytime heat.
In summary, persistently higher night-time minima due to climate change are more significant to habitability than daytime temperature extremes, and wet-bulb temperatures in tropical climates, in both day and night time, are the critical parameters of mortality due to global worming.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This analysis does not seem to deal with the issue of the danger of higher nighttime minima, especially in hot climates.  During waking hours adaptation to or toleration of extremes of heat are possible, but cause stress, for which relief and recovery requires night-time maxima below the level of stress.  Daytime extremes vary more than night time minima, the average level of which is critical to human survival in hot climates.  So also is dew point &#8211; wet bulb temperatures over 30C are barely tolerable &#8211; 36C is fatal.  Wetbulb temperatures reached 32C over the China sea last summer, very close to the limit.  Nighttime minima can be as high as 28C (wetbulb 26C) in my former home Darwin during the West season, offering little relief from daytime heat.<br />
In summary, persistently higher night-time minima due to climate change are more significant to habitability than daytime temperature extremes, and wet-bulb temperatures in tropical climates, in both day and night time, are the critical parameters of mortality due to global worming.</p>
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		<title>
		By: zebra		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/#comment-477407</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[zebra]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2015 12:29:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=21170#comment-477407</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s always fun to point out to those who say Earth is cooling, not warming, that this is an &lt;i&gt;even more&lt;/i&gt; compelling reason to keep fossil fuels in the ground. We can then burn them to stay warm, and increase CO2 when needed to warm the planet.

Likewise, &quot;putting solar panels on your roof isn&#039;t going to stop warming because China and India&quot;. Well, maybe, but they &lt;i&gt;will&lt;/i&gt; power the air conditioner to deal with the increased temperatures.

Mitigation and adaptation are remarkably congruent in many areas. We should emphasize this more in public discussions.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s always fun to point out to those who say Earth is cooling, not warming, that this is an <i>even more</i> compelling reason to keep fossil fuels in the ground. We can then burn them to stay warm, and increase CO2 when needed to warm the planet.</p>
<p>Likewise, &#8220;putting solar panels on your roof isn&#8217;t going to stop warming because China and India&#8221;. Well, maybe, but they <i>will</i> power the air conditioner to deal with the increased temperatures.</p>
<p>Mitigation and adaptation are remarkably congruent in many areas. We should emphasize this more in public discussions.</p>
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