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	Comments on: A test of Jevons paradox in energy use: Falling gas prices	</title>
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	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/</link>
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	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 26 Jan 2015 19:05:30 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Donal		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474994</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Jan 2015 19:05:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474994</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@Tim, The idea that the US and KSA are driving down prices to hurt Putin is pervasive. I&#039;m sure they would if they could, but from what I see it isn&#039;t hurting the Russians as much as it is US oil rig firms, who are laying off thousands of workers. At Econbrowser, James Hamilton notes, &quot;... at the same time that oil price has been declining, we’ve also observed big drops in the price of other commodities like copper, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and the value of other currencies relative to the dollar. &quot;
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/01/whats-driving-the-price-of-oil-down-2]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Tim, The idea that the US and KSA are driving down prices to hurt Putin is pervasive. I&#8217;m sure they would if they could, but from what I see it isn&#8217;t hurting the Russians as much as it is US oil rig firms, who are laying off thousands of workers. At Econbrowser, James Hamilton notes, &#8220;&#8230; at the same time that oil price has been declining, we’ve also observed big drops in the price of other commodities like copper, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and the value of other currencies relative to the dollar. &#8221;<br />
<a href="http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/01/whats-driving-the-price-of-oil-down-2" rel="nofollow ugc">http://econbrowser.com/archives/2015/01/whats-driving-the-price-of-oil-down-2</a></p>
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		<title>
		By: Tim		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474993</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tim]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Jan 2015 18:33:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474993</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Eric Lund #25, 
There are some who run their vehicles based on the pyrolytic gassification of coal or cellulose; But those who engage in *rolling coal* are not doing that.  

*Rolling coal* is performed by temporarily running the engine &#039;rich&#039; under load.  It probably started as a protest in that doing so does not violate EPA standards for CO2 emission and several other &#039;pollutants&#039; (I suspect the particle size of the carbon is greater than what is considered dangerous and regulated-- unlike that from the deadly wood stove). 
-------------------------------

As others above have noted, supply and demand has no bearing on a market based on artificial scarcity and addiction/(vital necessities). It is illusionary to pretend the &#039;market&#039; dictates end-user expense, here. 

The geopolitical &#039;petro-dollar&#039; is a diplomatic *stick* to the *carrot* of not getting Freedom-Bombed like so many other nations who have tried to avail themselves of it.  In the US, it is refining capacity and the requirement for many different blends (by region) that would otherwise probably still keep prices at the pump much above what we currently see.  As such, I suspect this global collapse in oil/pump prices is a ploy to starve out Russia.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Eric Lund #25,<br />
There are some who run their vehicles based on the pyrolytic gassification of coal or cellulose; But those who engage in *rolling coal* are not doing that.  </p>
<p>*Rolling coal* is performed by temporarily running the engine &#8216;rich&#8217; under load.  It probably started as a protest in that doing so does not violate EPA standards for CO2 emission and several other &#8216;pollutants&#8217; (I suspect the particle size of the carbon is greater than what is considered dangerous and regulated&#8211; unlike that from the deadly wood stove).<br />
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-</p>
<p>As others above have noted, supply and demand has no bearing on a market based on artificial scarcity and addiction/(vital necessities). It is illusionary to pretend the &#8216;market&#8217; dictates end-user expense, here. </p>
<p>The geopolitical &#8216;petro-dollar&#8217; is a diplomatic *stick* to the *carrot* of not getting Freedom-Bombed like so many other nations who have tried to avail themselves of it.  In the US, it is refining capacity and the requirement for many different blends (by region) that would otherwise probably still keep prices at the pump much above what we currently see.  As such, I suspect this global collapse in oil/pump prices is a ploy to starve out Russia.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Eric Lund		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474992</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Lund]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Jan 2015 17:46:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474992</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Doug @18: The oil companies may be ripping you off, but taxes are also a big factor. I don&#039;t know about BC specifically, but the last few times I have been to Montreal (about a five hour drive from where I live) I have noticed that gas prices tend to be about 30% lower, net of currency and units conversions, in northern Vermont compared to the Eastern Townships. Which is why I fill my tank in either Swanton or Derby (depending which route I am taking), before crossing into Canada.

Michael @9: G is correct about &quot;coal rollers&quot;. I&#039;ll also note that Chad is in upstate New York (specifically the Albany-Schenectady-Troy region), which tends to be quite a bit less liberal than New York City. While you would still find a few would-be coal rollers in the NYC metro area, big city drivers (either potential victims of coal rollers, or others who witness) are probably more likely to report coal rolling, which happens to be illegal (both making the modification in the first place and for intentionally creating a hazard to other drivers).]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doug @18: The oil companies may be ripping you off, but taxes are also a big factor. I don&#8217;t know about BC specifically, but the last few times I have been to Montreal (about a five hour drive from where I live) I have noticed that gas prices tend to be about 30% lower, net of currency and units conversions, in northern Vermont compared to the Eastern Townships. Which is why I fill my tank in either Swanton or Derby (depending which route I am taking), before crossing into Canada.</p>
<p>Michael @9: G is correct about &#8220;coal rollers&#8221;. I&#8217;ll also note that Chad is in upstate New York (specifically the Albany-Schenectady-Troy region), which tends to be quite a bit less liberal than New York City. While you would still find a few would-be coal rollers in the NYC metro area, big city drivers (either potential victims of coal rollers, or others who witness) are probably more likely to report coal rolling, which happens to be illegal (both making the modification in the first place and for intentionally creating a hazard to other drivers).</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474991</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Jan 2015 14:47:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474991</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Depends on where you are. The highest in places was 3.70, lowest now just under 1.70, but those maxima may not be in the same places.  It is way under 2.00 across much of the country right now I think.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Depends on where you are. The highest in places was 3.70, lowest now just under 1.70, but those maxima may not be in the same places.  It is way under 2.00 across much of the country right now I think.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Shelix		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474990</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Shelix]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Jan 2015 14:31:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474990</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Half??  Clearly i need to move.  Here it went from around $3.80 to $2.40 ish.  A noticeable and welcome reduction, but not nearly half.

Coincidentally, right when the prices started falling, my commute tripled in distance, so i for one am grateful.  The fact that i now have tolls and didn&#039;t before completely negates any cost savings, however.  

Complex systems are complex ;)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Half??  Clearly i need to move.  Here it went from around $3.80 to $2.40 ish.  A noticeable and welcome reduction, but not nearly half.</p>
<p>Coincidentally, right when the prices started falling, my commute tripled in distance, so i for one am grateful.  The fact that i now have tolls and didn&#8217;t before completely negates any cost savings, however.  </p>
<p>Complex systems are complex 😉</p>
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		<title>
		By: Donal		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474989</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Donal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 13:41:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474989</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[@G: Agree. Your second paragraph hits home, actually. My wife&#039;s vehicle, an aged but reliable Accord, was just rear-ended and totaled by a pickup truck. It has a low book value, so even if we buy a used car we can&#039;t replace it without borrowing. I am loath to go into debt just to see the next financial bubble burst. I already ride my bike whenever weather allows, so I am planning to give her my aged car and rely on Zipcar when I need wheels.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@G: Agree. Your second paragraph hits home, actually. My wife&#8217;s vehicle, an aged but reliable Accord, was just rear-ended and totaled by a pickup truck. It has a low book value, so even if we buy a used car we can&#8217;t replace it without borrowing. I am loath to go into debt just to see the next financial bubble burst. I already ride my bike whenever weather allows, so I am planning to give her my aged car and rely on Zipcar when I need wheels.</p>
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		<title>
		By: G		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474988</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[G]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 11:20:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474988</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think this is more likely:

Gas prices down, people either save the money, or use it to pay down their debts.  The unpleasant memories of the recent de&#039;pre&#039;ssion (that&#039;s a contraction of &quot;deep recession&quot;) are still too vivid for the lesson to be forgotten entirely.

Also, even those who are at a point where they truly need to replace a vehicle, are probably thinking of the current price drop as a booby-trap or, at best, a temporary thing.  To use some unpleasant language for it, the thought would be &quot;those A-Rabs are just trying to jerk our chain,&quot; and that wouldn&#039;t be too far from reality.   

Re. Michael @ 9:  &quot;Coal Rollers.&quot;  As far as I know, they aren&#039;t actually operating their vehicles on coal.  Instead they&#039;re modifying the engines and exhaust systems to make the cars run as dirty (dirtily?) as possible, or they&#039;re adding some kind of theatrical device that produces clouds of soot.  Along the way they&#039;re also damaging their engines, so those vehicles will drop dead long before their expiration dates.  The early demise of the vehicles will tick off the people who are doing this, and be a lesson to their friends &#038; neighbors, for which reason I think this fad will be quickly self-extinguished.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think this is more likely:</p>
<p>Gas prices down, people either save the money, or use it to pay down their debts.  The unpleasant memories of the recent de&#8217;pre&#8217;ssion (that&#8217;s a contraction of &#8220;deep recession&#8221;) are still too vivid for the lesson to be forgotten entirely.</p>
<p>Also, even those who are at a point where they truly need to replace a vehicle, are probably thinking of the current price drop as a booby-trap or, at best, a temporary thing.  To use some unpleasant language for it, the thought would be &#8220;those A-Rabs are just trying to jerk our chain,&#8221; and that wouldn&#8217;t be too far from reality.   </p>
<p>Re. Michael @ 9:  &#8220;Coal Rollers.&#8221;  As far as I know, they aren&#8217;t actually operating their vehicles on coal.  Instead they&#8217;re modifying the engines and exhaust systems to make the cars run as dirty (dirtily?) as possible, or they&#8217;re adding some kind of theatrical device that produces clouds of soot.  Along the way they&#8217;re also damaging their engines, so those vehicles will drop dead long before their expiration dates.  The early demise of the vehicles will tick off the people who are doing this, and be a lesson to their friends &amp; neighbors, for which reason I think this fad will be quickly self-extinguished.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474987</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 03:42:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474987</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Donal: &quot;In your first analogy, it may well be that far fewer people are calling for deliveries so you have to lay off half of the delivery staff. In your second, it may well be that you no longer have a job to commute to and have to sell the car. That is why demand is falling.&quot; 

If any of that was true demand would be rising given the current economy, I would think.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Donal: &#8220;In your first analogy, it may well be that far fewer people are calling for deliveries so you have to lay off half of the delivery staff. In your second, it may well be that you no longer have a job to commute to and have to sell the car. That is why demand is falling.&#8221; </p>
<p>If any of that was true demand would be rising given the current economy, I would think.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474986</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 03:41:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474986</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Young: &quot;But consumer demand for gasoline is highly inelastic. Prices go up, people still have to drive to work, they just have less disposable income when they get home. Prices go down… people are not going to start driving to work more often.&quot;

Mostly, yes. But this is also true of most energy use.  So this should generally apply.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Young: &#8220;But consumer demand for gasoline is highly inelastic. Prices go up, people still have to drive to work, they just have less disposable income when they get home. Prices go down… people are not going to start driving to work more often.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mostly, yes. But this is also true of most energy use.  So this should generally apply.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Doug Alder		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2015/01/21/a-test-of-jevons-paradox-in-energy-use-falling-gas-prices/#comment-474985</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Doug Alder]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Jan 2015 02:24:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20799#comment-474985</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[GregH

once again us Canucks are getting ripped off by the oil companies - at least here in rural BC (West Kootenays). Last year when gas was at it&#039;s highest price - around $1.38/l here  a barrel of oil was over $100 USD. Today a barrel of  oil is just under $50 USD and the price at the pump has not dropped under a $1/l here.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>GregH</p>
<p>once again us Canucks are getting ripped off by the oil companies &#8211; at least here in rural BC (West Kootenays). Last year when gas was at it&#8217;s highest price &#8211; around $1.38/l here  a barrel of oil was over $100 USD. Today a barrel of  oil is just under $50 USD and the price at the pump has not dropped under a $1/l here.</p>
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