Comments on: So, are we going to have an El Nino, or what?

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 23 Jan 2015 17:34:49 +0000

“Kelvin waves mainly.”

I wonder how one would tell the difference between ‘neutral’, waning La Nina, and waxing El Nino.

Uhh, never mind — 2011 did see lots of intense suck-zonal activity going on in the midwest and Southeastern parts of North America.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#Transitional_phases

I’m just speculating (did I mention I like to speculate?) but perhaps there is more to it than one or the other. Perhaps, if one were to sample at the proper temporal and spatial scales, the phenomena is actually a superposition of the two at any given time with turbulent granularity in mixed pockets of upwelling/downwelling over any given region; As such, a ‘superposition of waves’ type approach may yeild a more accurate forecast and with greater precision.

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 21 Jan 2015 19:18:16 +0000

In reply to clayton fox.

Unless you have specific information that the part of the NWS that deals with El Nino was affected by budget cuts (which actually didn’t happen long term) then you probably don’t have much of an argument here. Also, all the agencies are saying almost exactly the same thing.

Also, the recession didn’t shut down the government.

By: clayton fox

clayton fox — Wed, 21 Jan 2015 19:08:02 +0000

You have to think that the National Weather Service may not be the most credible source to use when predicting an El nino.
After the last recession where the government was shut down for a couple of weeks, the NWS had to cut a big portion of employees. If you look closely, the information doesn’t add up. I think we have a very very very weak El Nino. too weak to really predict. Kelvin waves mainly.