Put it this way, in support of Climate Science, I would quote you or Gavin Schmidt before quoting the First in Line to the Throne !

Dr Ridley claimed that there have been more attempts on his character than on his arguments. To underline his point, Pitchfork Anonymous smears his name.

Anyone who points out the irony of all this receives the same treatment.

Matthew, when you put together the air, SST, and the sea, there is ZERO SLOWDOWN IN WARMING.

Remember this: “Spoiler alert, he is wrong on both counts.”

“First, has global warming slowed down? If it has, Ridley may be on to something (but maybe not). If it has not, then this hypothesis is falsified.”

“Notice that the trend does in fact drop slightly in upward slope in recent years. ”

“rather than warming slowing below the predicted level, it has nearly maintained the predicted level…”

What!? This is like saying rather than the cup being half empty it is actually half full. It’s the same thing! You can’t argue with someone when you are both actually in agreement.

And then…

“…thus falsifying Ridley’s hypothesis”

No! Really? See above, it is actually failing to reject Ridley’s hypothesis. The slowdown may not be significant, but it is there, thus has global warming slowed down? Slightly. Hardly falsifies his hypothesis does it?

Nearly maintaining a predicted level (but just falling short) = slowing below the predicted level.

“But, yes, there may be a slowing of surface temperature increase”

“The vast majority of the heat that is added to (or subtracted from) the Earth goes into and out of the deeper ocean, not the atmosphere or sea surface.”

“there is strong evidence that the top 2000 meters or so of the oceans is indeed taking in the extra heat that helps account for a minor slowdown in warming.”

Wait, what minor slowdown??? Oh, wait you actually have a paper on this!

“Let me add that even if warming was slower than some preconceived rate, that does not mean that it is not a problem.”

This is an admission that Ridley’s first hypothesis is correct, you give up trying to claim it isn’t and instead claim that even if it is correct it still makes global warming important.

“Ridley is, essentially, predicting that over the next decade or so far more years will fall below a regression line based on recent decades”

Like you showed in the above graph? So Ridley’s first hypothesis is actually supported by the information you present in this article and his second would be supported if the trend you identify here continues into the future.

Your best hope of Ridley being wrong with his second hypothesis is if the current situation is a short term blip, his best hope of being correct is if this isn’t a blip but a long term trend. So its blip v trend…

Let’s go back to the start of this article “Spoiler alert, he is wrong on both counts.” – but he isn’t – his first hypothesis is supported and we all agree you can’t test his second. So in terms of this sentence you are the one who is wrong!

Let’s get one thing clear, there is a slow down, everyone on both sides of the argument has to acknowledge that, because it is clear empirically. Whether it lasts or not is the only important issue, but there is no way of telling at this point. Ideas about an acceleration of warming into the future are being pushed into the margins of forecasts because as the slowdown continues the forecasts, using the most current data, must start from a lower point and with a shallower slope.

A shallower slope: one final point – re the gif. Look carefully at the last two frames, there are some green data points added on when the red line is added, that weren’t there when the blue steps were shown. Points which mean the red line is steeper than it would have been.

This is incredibly annoying because it looks like there is some hocus pocus going on when surely there isn’t. But the gif itself is important because it sends the message that the long term must be viewed with one straight line. If the warming is not at a constant speed then a straight line is not a best-fit line, it should be curved, when you fit such a line you see the Goddard chart – the one showing a recent slowing. If the slowdown is not a blip then curved best fit lines will explain more and more of the data over time, and then the shape of the curve will be of interest – is it upward sloping or downward sloping? Well the current position seems quite clear…