Comments on: Is the GOP Energy Committee Chair Going Down in Michigan's 6th? https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/ Wed, 05 Nov 2014 16:48:55 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484236 Wed, 05 Nov 2014 16:48:55 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484236 Yeah, that race went sideways.

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484235 Wed, 05 Nov 2014 15:49:28 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484235 I don’t know what it meant, or why it happened. I had hope it meant a strong turnout for the Democratic party, but that didn’t occur here. Upton won handily, as did our governor, despite some serious issues being pointed out in what he’s said versus what he’s done.

Locally it was mixed. Local school districts did get some continuing funding renewed despite some heavy attacks in the media, but a guy who, in a campaign survey lied and said he’d never been arrested when, in fact, had been convicted of drunk driving, was elected to a state House seat “on the strength of his character”. I don’t even pretend to understand that.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484234 Tue, 04 Nov 2014 21:51:02 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484234 Dean, what does that mean, I wonder?

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484233 Tue, 04 Nov 2014 21:22:29 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484233 For what it is worth: voter turnout at my voting place was much heavier than usual, at least by 8 when I went in. I stopped at 7:15 but the line was far out the door, and the dog was in the car. When I voted I was number (something noticeably larger than 100). The line behind me was to the door – much busier than it was for the last presidential election.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484232 Tue, 04 Nov 2014 19:43:49 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484232 Eric, I agree completely.

I once asked someone who knows how the DCCC is organized, who staffs it, etc. I was not impressed. Mostly younger folks starting out cutting their teeth working out this stuff. They probably don’t even smoke cigars.

]]> By: Eric Lund https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484231 Tue, 04 Nov 2014 19:05:38 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484231 [The 6th District is] the most Democratic seat in Michigan that’s held by a Republican. Why the DCCC has been unwilling to invest in this district is perplexing.

I don’t have hard numbers handy, but my impression is that the DCCC doesn’t have a good track record for predicting pick-up opportunities. Where I live (NH-01), they gave zero support in 2006 to Carol Shea-Porter, who won that race.

FWIW, I haven’t seen any polling on either NH congressional race, even though these are two of the most competitive districts in the country (both flipped from R to D in 2006, back to R in 2010, and back to D in 2012). I avoid watching TV as much as I can (our media market is Boston, so I’d be stuck with Massachusetts as well as New Hampshire political ads). And I live in one of the bluest towns in the state, so I know that what my neighbors think is not representative of the state as a whole.

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484230 Thu, 30 Oct 2014 19:38:08 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484230 Greg, yes, I understand that – I am a statistician (which you wouldn’t know, clearly: my specialty is robust regression methods, not survey design or sampling, but this case is, as you say, really elementary).
My comment is not generated by lack of understanding.
I hope things work out for Clement, but the mood in this part of the state is really conservative – really conservative. I don’t know enough about the company that did the survey to judge its reliability.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484229 Thu, 30 Oct 2014 14:20:32 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484229 The sample size is derived from basic probability theory. There is really nothing wrong with the sample size.

Polling is a science, it produces results that have meaning that can be understood in terms of probability. It generally works pretty well.

Keep in mind that getting 400 responses means making over 5,000 calls, most likely.

]]> By: dean https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484228 Thu, 30 Oct 2014 13:54:43 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484228

That is a normal sample size for a congressional district poll and yields a +/- of about 5%.

That may be (and I use survey results as examples in my classes). I’m still not impressed with the sample size, common as it may be.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/10/29/is-the-gop-energy-committee-chair-going-down-in-michigans-6th/#comment-484227 Thu, 30 Oct 2014 02:58:49 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20587#comment-484227 Rob, yes, that is how we do it! The polling data is not to be found in congressional races, but the GOTV, canvassing, etc. can be very high tech, and the Dems are better at that because we believe in things like electrons and software.

]]>