Comments on: What will this winter be like in North America? https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/ Tue, 30 Sep 2014 17:38:27 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.6 By: Drought to persist through remainder of 2014 | Keep the Truckee River Healthy and Flowing https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482216 Tue, 30 Sep 2014 17:38:27 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482216 […] What will this winter be like in North America? [Greg Laden's Blog] […]

]]> By: anonymous https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482215 Mon, 22 Sep 2014 16:40:18 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482215 Well, no, because modern ways of predicting weather are (under relatively stable conditions, and presuming that the associated infrastructure is maintained) so much more precise that there’s no need to use crude old-fashioned methods anymore, so no point in testing them. Why bother to prove or remind people that a “red sky at morning” statistically increases the chance of rain or storms if we will continue to get our daily forecast from the Doppler radar? But that doesn’t mean nothing in the old almanacs had any validity whatsoever or will ever have any use again. I’m not ready to count the woolly bears out just yet!

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482214 Fri, 19 Sep 2014 18:31:51 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482214 In reply to anonymous.

If there was, wouldn’t you think we would know there was, use that to predict winter, and instead of dismissing wooly bears NOAA would make the connection?

]]> By: anonymous https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482213 Fri, 19 Sep 2014 17:35:00 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482213 Oops, I misspoke – yes, of course, the central band is brown. And maybe I saw a new species moving into an area that always before had a different species. I’m not convinced, though, that a NASA page without citations completely debunks the legend. It would surprise me if there was no correlation between one growing season’s climate and that of the following winter.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482212 Thu, 18 Sep 2014 19:48:38 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482212 In reply to anonymous.

Uh uh.

“Even though it is widely believed that the woolly bear caterpillar can predict the upcoming winter’s severity, the truth is that this caterpillar can’t predict what Old Man Winter has in store for us in the upcoming winter. The woolly bear caterpillar’s coloring is based on how long caterpillar has been feeding, its age, and species. The better the growing season is the bigger it will grow. This results in narrower red-orange bands in its middle. Thus, the width of the banding is an indicator of the current or past season’s growth rather than an indicator of the severity of the upcoming winter. Also, the coloring indicates the age of the woolly bear caterpillar. The caterpillars shed their skins or molt six times before reaching adult size. With each successive molt, their colors change, becoming less black and more reddish. In addition, there are approximately 260 species of tiger moths (the adult of the woolly bear caterpillar) in North America, and each species has slightly different color patterns and hair coverings. As a result, some of the color and hair variations that we see each fall are a result of these different species.
”

From NOAA: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=woollybear

]]> By: anonymous https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482211 Thu, 18 Sep 2014 19:16:57 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482211 In the Midwest, we have large caterpillars called woolly bears that are seen in large numbers poking across country roads in fall. They are normally brown at both ends with a central black stripe, and according to lore, the broader the black stripe, the earlier or harder the winter will be. This year, I saw a bunch of them before the end of August. All were solid black end to end. Shamefully un-Scientific, perhaps, but anyone who grew up where I did knows you disregard the woolly bears at your peril. 🙂

]]> By: Robert Clark https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482210 Thu, 18 Sep 2014 16:42:54 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482210 I wonder if the polar vortex is connected to the rebound in the arctic ice level the last two years. In that case we should expect another instance of the polar vortex this Winter.

Bob Clark

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482209 Thu, 18 Sep 2014 16:08:10 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482209 Normally I don’t allow links to Dorothy of Oz on this site, but in this case I’ll make an exception because it is a classic example of cherry picking.

]]> By: Mike R https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/09/18/what-will-this-winter-be-like-in-north-america/#comment-482208 Thu, 18 Sep 2014 15:44:55 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20354#comment-482208 Have you read this?

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/09/16/august-2014-is-no-longer-the-hottest-on-record/

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