Comments on: Update on West Africa's #Ebola Outbreak: Getting worse

By: Ebola group links | My Blog

Ebola group links | My Blog — Wed, 24 Sep 2014 01:53:03 +0000

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By: Ebola group links | willmcdonalddotco

Ebola group links | willmcdonalddotco — Wed, 24 Sep 2014 01:51:28 +0000

[…] http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/09/10/update-on-west-africas-ebola-outbreak-getting-worse/ […]

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 12:00:09 +0000

Best Guess: WHO is now only supplying regular information by twitter, and sparingly so. the current infection rate is about the same as previously according to that indicating either that the epidemic is waning or they are simply unable to keep track. I think the point you mention was reached a few weeks ago, but hopefully with more resources going in now it will be unreached.

By: BestGuess

BestGuess — Wed, 17 Sep 2014 04:29:53 +0000

Data on infections and fatalities seems to be more sporatic as the epidemic entensifies. At some point in time (may have been reached) local health services reporting to the WHO will be unable to supply reliable data.

The last three data points don’t fit the second chart for cases and deaths. You could double your projections.

By: Current Events : Ebola (6 Links) | Kelsey Schenck

Current Events : Ebola (6 Links) | Kelsey Schenck — Tue, 16 Sep 2014 22:20:58 +0000

[…] http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/09/10/update-on-west-africas-ebola-outbreak-getting-worse/ […]

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 22:30:27 +0000

In reply to ScienceOutsider. I was being conservative.

By: ScienceOutsider

ScienceOutsider — Sun, 14 Sep 2014 22:21:17 +0000

@Greg Laden — Where did you find those exponential models? (#13) The ones I’ve read about are predicting 10,000 within *this month*, rather than late December! And over 100,000 in December:

http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/08/disease-modelers-project-rapidly-rising-toll-ebola

Another model predicts 8,000-55,000 cases through early October — for some perspective on the uncertainty! The higher estimate is a scenario with a higher exponential constant (R0), because of a breakdown in containing and quarantining ebola patients.

http://cpid.iri.columbia.edu/ebola.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/africa/us-scientists-see-long-fight-against-ebola.html

(I am not an epidemologist)

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 14:10:45 +0000

I would like to see a virus expert talk about the general patterns of what kind of viruses tend to be fairborn, which kinds, if any, really can’t be, etc.

By: Jason Z

Jason Z — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 12:45:24 +0000

In reply to dean.

HIV has been mutating in a large host for a long time.

It had not become airborne. I do suspect that catastrophising about this virus becoming airborne is closer to science fiction.

HPV, HIV, HSV for instance have never mutated to become airborne. It seems like a leap to imagine this would.

By: dean

dean — Thu, 11 Sep 2014 12:29:53 +0000

There is a real threat of an airborne version arising…

The people in the discussion I referenced came back to this several times. To paraphrase their opinion: If that were to occur things would quickly go to shit over a wide region. Not a comforting conclusion.