Comments on: #Ebola: Second, possibly third outbreak, West African outbreak growing https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/ Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:18:49 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: Influenza Virus Mashup » Blog Archive » [Flu Wiki Forum] News Reports for August 26, 2014 https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481656 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 22:18:49 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481656 […] Ebola response (Link) • Ebola: Second, possibly third outbreak, West African outbreak growing (Link) • Ebola outbreak: A snapshot of life in the ‘hot zone’ as Australian experts work to […]

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481655 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 20:11:29 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481655 Shayna, if Ebola in West Africa had mutated to become airborn the epidemiology would look very different, and the spread would be much more dramatic, so no, that almost certainly has not happened. The Reston case is a special circumstance, and actually, it may not be airborne in humans.

But there is nothing that I know of that excludes the possibility of it happening. On the other hand, consider the evolutionary context of Ebola. In its native setting, it has a very good way of getting around among fruit bats. So, in a sense, it may be the case that Ebola is not predisposed to develop in this way.

]]> By: Shayna Cooke https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481654 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 19:22:29 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481654 I am putting this out there, please don’t think of me as ignorant, but is it not possible for this strain of Ebola to have mutated into a form that is spread via aerosols? It seems to me that the rate of infection spreading across W. Africa is more consistent with an airborne infection than an infection spread through somewhat casual contact. If I am correct, the Reston strain is spread via aerosols. Would it be such a leap for Zaire to be as well, now?

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481653 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 12:36:50 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481653 Actually, I get the rate of increase increasing at 1.6 per day. It probably depends on the exact data that are used and how it is parsed out. The reporting is for a variable number of days (each report may be 2,3, or 4 days) and that has to be taken into consideration, etc. But for the period shown in the graph above, the average additional cases is 41, for the last seven updates (going back to August 9th) it is 68. The simple slope of a linear model for the last several reporting data’s per day rate is 1.6. However, you are the expert on these things; what are you basing the decrease in rate?

Given the circumstances I’m not sure why R0 would not be consistent.

]]> By: Thomas Guiraud https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481652 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 09:55:27 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481652 According to the WHO data. As of 22 august, the rate of increase IS, in fact increasing. Simply look at the graphics :

http://www.thomas.guiraud.co/biologie/evolution-de-la-mortalite-cumulee-lors-de-lepidemie-debola-en-afrique-de-louest-en-2014/

Propagation rate is exponential in Liberia and itself sufficient to increase the propagation rate in all west africa.

]]> By: Jamie https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/08/25/ebola-second-possibly-third-outbreak-west-african-outbreak-growing/#comment-481651 Tue, 26 Aug 2014 04:54:56 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=20218#comment-481651 If the WHO reporting data are to be believed, the rate of increase is not, in fact, increasing. It is decreasing every so slightly. I will admit that the constancy of the reproduction number across the last 16 reporting periods makes me a bit suspicious and, of course, WHO has suggested that there is evidence on the ground of “massive under-reporting” but they haven’t really followed up on that.

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