Comments on: Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/ Wed, 23 Apr 2014 15:34:23 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479734 Wed, 23 Apr 2014 15:34:23 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479734 More on El Niño and hurricanes:

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/04/23/atlantic-hurricanes-and-el-nino/

Excellent post on El Niño:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Is-a-Powerful-El-Nino-Brewing-in-the-Pacific-Ocean.html

]]> By: Eli Rabett https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479733 Wed, 23 Apr 2014 11:14:58 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479733 The difference here is that there is an observed and modelled physical mechanism (wind shear) associated with the correlation, e.g. the house bets heavily on a light hurricane season if El Nino emerges.

]]> By: This week in science: Kepler bags the Holy Grail | PROGRESSIVE VOICES https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479732 Sun, 20 Apr 2014 01:00:52 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479732 […] We may be looking at a Super El Nino, rivaling the 1998 maximum. But if it comes to pass, it might restrain hurricane formation. […]

]]> By: This week in science: Kepler bags the Holy Grail - Online Political Blog https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479731 Sat, 19 Apr 2014 22:01:09 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479731 […] We may be looking at a Super El Nino, rivaling the 1998 maximum. But if it comes to pass, it might restrain hurricane formation. […]

]]> By: This week in science: Kepler bags the Holy Grail - Political Truths https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479730 Sat, 19 Apr 2014 13:47:50 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479730 […] We may be looking at a Super El Nino, rivaling the 1998 maximum. But if it comes to pass, it might restrain hurricane formation. […]

]]> By: 14034388 https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479729 Fri, 18 Apr 2014 11:28:10 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479729 The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. The world’s largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. During the 1982–83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward, so some catches decreased while others increased.[14] Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting locations and types of fish due to changing conditions provide challenges for fishing industries. Peruvian sardines have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial fleets.

]]> By: catweazle666 https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479728 Sat, 12 Apr 2014 15:39:40 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479728 Still clutching at straws, I see…

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479727 Fri, 11 Apr 2014 17:54:29 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479727 Also, hurricanes may be weaker this year because of relatively cooler Atlantic waters. But an El Nino should do some planet-wide warming up. So, an El Nino may actually increase hurricane activity, just in a later year.

]]> By: Eric Lund https://gregladen.com/blog/2014/04/11/atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/#comment-479726 Fri, 11 Apr 2014 16:38:08 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=19337#comment-479726 The standard explanation I have heard for why El Niño years tend to have fewer Atlantic hurricanes is that during El Niño events upper level wind shear is increased in the tropical North Atlantic. You are correct to note that we are in climatologically uncharted waters, so we shouldn’t count on this correlation to hold. And even in an inactive year, hurricanes will form and sometimes make landfall, so anybody near a vulnerable coast should make preparations. But we don’t know yet exactly how things will be different–maybe this correlation will hold, and a different one (e.g., El Niño years usually mean wetter winters in California and the southern US) will break. So hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

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