Good question. I’m not going to assume you are not one of those pesky science deniers pretending to ask an innocent looking question until proven otherwise, but I’ll address this.

It is true that if a forcing other than CO2 raises or lowers temperatures, CO2 amounts follow, because of the way the Carbon cycle works. That is a separate effect than adding CO2 to the atmosphere, which then raises the heat. So you are talking about both different systems and different scales of change.

You can read about it here: http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm

Dear “Sam Smith” from Texas.

There is plenty of dissent and alternative theorizing in real science. But then there is also the fake science, the non-science that does have a political or economic (or just plain kooky) agenda. The latter is what denialists do.

I know you think that one or a few people who get it totally wrong and are largely ignorant of the science must be brilliant and insightful like Galileo, but that is not actually how it works. That is not how Galileo did it, and it is not how you get to do it.

They’re not science deniers, but they are advocating for a lower climate sensitivity. The climate sensitivity scales to the amount of fear that any right-thinking citizen should feel, kind of like the terror alert color code. Saying that it’s low means that they are saying that right-thinkers should not be so worried. This is why they deny reality. We should all be very afraid and only a denier would deny that.

You want to critique their article then great, but you sap your own credibility with the name calling.

Or you could just call it a crock. Which is unkind, but accurate as far as I can tell.

There are two aspects to this paper, it seems to me. The first is the question of scientific validity. With respect to that, it would be good if it had been published in a peer-reviewed journal. There it would be subject to rigorous assessment by mainstream scientists. Contrary to belief in certain quarters, scientists respect valid data. If Lewis and Crok had come up with some, they would get credit (although perhaps not immediately.)

The second aspect is the question of ideological bias. This is something which the Global Warming Policy Foundation, publisher of this paper, has consistently demonstrated. It opposes proposed actions to mitigate the effects of climate change, and seeks to forestall them by any means, including obfuscation of climate science.

All that said, nothing precludes a paper published by the GWPF exposing some new evidence that actually does show climate sensitivity is less than previously supposed. And as I said, if Lewis and Crok have done that, they will be recognized.

But I don’t think they have. I come to that conclusion merely by reading the subtitle of their paper: “How the IPCC hid the good news on global warming.” No scientists with the real, revolutionary data in hand would need to suggest a conspiracy to hide that data; they would simply present it and let things get sorted out. (After which, I frequently point out, they would be sorta rich and famous.)

That subtitle is, in short, a very good indication that their paper is blowing smoke. Perusing its 44 pages and explaining its faults is valuable, and I thank Greg for doing so. But part of the denialist strategy is to waste opponents’ time, and any rule of thumb that cuts that short is IMO a good thing.