Well, you’re not correct in that. There are several temporal scales that have been examined by several researchers. One study showed that over 1,500 years Atlantic hurricanes were more common in recent decades and during the Medieval Warm period compared to other time periods (Mann et al 2009). Good records for hurricanes are probably only a few decades old, and climate change is something that would have started as early as the turn of the century (the last century, not this one), so looking at the last few decades of similar data is not that helpful. Having said that, studies of Pacific hurricanes (i.e. Emanuel 2005) show that there is a strong correlation between sea surface temperature and overall hurricane strength in a given season, and also that sea surface temperature has trended distinctly upwards over the last hundred years.

There are other studies as well, but the upshot is that there is evidence from the empirical record, if you don’t cherry pick or ignore important data (like how strong hurricanes are rather than just their SS number) that both frequency and strength have gone up overall.

So, no, you’ve not got that right, Sean.

He claims ” We were constantly told that there would be an increasing FREQUENCY of cyclones.”

My recollection of the IPCC reports is “stronger but fewer” for the reasons that Greg outlined.

From the 2007 WG1 SPM.
“Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones.”
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf

Less confidence in the projection but definitely fewer. This statement is essentially repeated in the 2012 IPCC SREX.

I believe that Professor Kerry Emanuel from MIT is the one researcher who has a different view. Explained in the following article.
“These findings – that both the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones could increase – are unusual. Most research suggests that while tropical cyclones could become more intense under climate change, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to stay roughly the same, or decrease.”
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/07/new-study-shows-not-all-models-agree-on-the-fate-of-tropical-cyclones-under-climate-change

The graphs I referenced show historic data (you know what I mean Greg – real data, not made up stuff).
The total energy/strength thing is a typical exercise in alarmist goalpost moving. We were constantly told that there would be an increasing FREQUENCY of cyclones. When that didn’t happen, the alarmists decided to start shouting about energy/strength. I have to admit this was a mastertstroke of propaganda, as the data on energy and strength is way more variable (and therefore harder to measure) than simply counting the frequency.

Oh, and what does cool mean to you Greg? I thought the phrase ‘to cool’ meant ‘to get colder’. Maybe I’m wrong.

In summary Greg, I think you’re clutching at straws as you try to make excuses for the lack of warming in the land temp records that alarmists were always promising us would rise like a hockey stick 😉

That’s it, I really am finished now.
It’s been a blast. This blog is better than any stand-up comedian I’ve ever seen.

In a few moments I’m going to update this post to replace my dumb graph of Haiyan’s path with one produced by Wunder Blogger Dr. Jeff Masters which should answer your question nicely.