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	Comments on: Should There be a Category 6 for Hurricanes?	</title>
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	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Months After Haiyan&#8217;s Landfall, 100,000 IDPs Remain &#124; ReliefAnalysis		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489882</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Months After Haiyan&#8217;s Landfall, 100,000 IDPs Remain &#124; ReliefAnalysis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 May 2016 19:27:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489882</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] history. Haiyan&#8217;s strength was so incredible that it created the question of whether a Category 6 or 7 should exist on the Saffir-Simpson [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] history. Haiyan&#8217;s strength was so incredible that it created the question of whether a Category 6 or 7 should exist on the Saffir-Simpson [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: GoatGuy		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489881</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[GoatGuy]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2015 18:44:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489881</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Why conflate climate-change-denialism with the opportunity to fine-tune the Saffir-Simpson scale?  CCDs are quite capable of making an endless word stream of banalities, phlegm splatter and word-salad nihilisms on their own.  

If the SSS needs to be extended for SCIENTIFICALLY SOUND reasons at the top-end, then ... do it.  A Gilbert or Hiayan rotating so compactly to achieve 180+ knot sustained wind velocities is a MONSTER, and should have its own special, astounding designation. OMG! OMG! A once-a-decade Category 6!  Etc.

Because whether one&#039;s a GWA (global warming activist) or a denialist, or something between, it seems like fairly good proxy-science to start counting ... the monsters.  After all, if the scientists are to be believed (which they should!) then there&#039;s outstanding predictions of MORE and MORE FIERCE hurricanes as AGW inexorably progresses.  So, let&#039;s count &#039;em, and show everyone that yes, they are matching or exceeding predictions!  And newscasters will love the new category, even if the monsters don&#039;t show up at rates higher than historical.  

Win, win, win.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why conflate climate-change-denialism with the opportunity to fine-tune the Saffir-Simpson scale?  CCDs are quite capable of making an endless word stream of banalities, phlegm splatter and word-salad nihilisms on their own.  </p>
<p>If the SSS needs to be extended for SCIENTIFICALLY SOUND reasons at the top-end, then &#8230; do it.  A Gilbert or Hiayan rotating so compactly to achieve 180+ knot sustained wind velocities is a MONSTER, and should have its own special, astounding designation. OMG! OMG! A once-a-decade Category 6!  Etc.</p>
<p>Because whether one&#8217;s a GWA (global warming activist) or a denialist, or something between, it seems like fairly good proxy-science to start counting &#8230; the monsters.  After all, if the scientists are to be believed (which they should!) then there&#8217;s outstanding predictions of MORE and MORE FIERCE hurricanes as AGW inexorably progresses.  So, let&#8217;s count &#8217;em, and show everyone that yes, they are matching or exceeding predictions!  And newscasters will love the new category, even if the monsters don&#8217;t show up at rates higher than historical.  </p>
<p>Win, win, win.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Scott		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489880</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Scott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Nov 2013 16:37:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489880</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I agree that adding a Cat 6 to the SS scale could make sense..  If you look at the existing scale, each category is roughly 20-25 mph increments:

Cat 1:  74-95
Cat 2: 96-110
Cat 3: 111-130
Cat 4: 131-155
Cat 5: 156+

Going by that pattern, maybe Cat 5 should be 156-180, and 181+ could be Cat 6.

There have been a few storms in the past century that qualify as a Cat 6 according to what I just typed:  Haiyan and Camille, and I also believe Gilbert?

Rare, but it can happen.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree that adding a Cat 6 to the SS scale could make sense..  If you look at the existing scale, each category is roughly 20-25 mph increments:</p>
<p>Cat 1:  74-95<br />
Cat 2: 96-110<br />
Cat 3: 111-130<br />
Cat 4: 131-155<br />
Cat 5: 156+</p>
<p>Going by that pattern, maybe Cat 5 should be 156-180, and 181+ could be Cat 6.</p>
<p>There have been a few storms in the past century that qualify as a Cat 6 according to what I just typed:  Haiyan and Camille, and I also believe Gilbert?</p>
<p>Rare, but it can happen.</p>
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		<title>
		By: adelady		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489879</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[adelady]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Nov 2013 10:53:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489879</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I&#039;d suggest a &quot;scale&quot; or a category that sort of lines up with the new &quot;catastrophic&quot; fire danger category we&#039;re using in Australia.  

It basically amounts to, &quot;nobody can get to you to help you during the event and we probably won&#039;t be able to get to you after the event for a good while, maybe a long while.&quot;  Once it gets close you won&#039;t be &lt;i&gt;able&lt;/i&gt; to get out.  Don&#039;t wait.  Get out before you can&#039;t get out.  When you see the flames or see the wind or the water is rising or the debris is flying, it&#039;s already too late.   That really applies to Category 5, but the big issue for these bigger storms - is that they&#039;re bigger.  They cover more area and any individual person or household is that much less likely to get any assistance they need in the aftermath.   

Some marketing person could turn the various concepts into something that might stick once the measurement or implications have been worked out.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d suggest a &#8220;scale&#8221; or a category that sort of lines up with the new &#8220;catastrophic&#8221; fire danger category we&#8217;re using in Australia.  </p>
<p>It basically amounts to, &#8220;nobody can get to you to help you during the event and we probably won&#8217;t be able to get to you after the event for a good while, maybe a long while.&#8221;  Once it gets close you won&#8217;t be <i>able</i> to get out.  Don&#8217;t wait.  Get out before you can&#8217;t get out.  When you see the flames or see the wind or the water is rising or the debris is flying, it&#8217;s already too late.   That really applies to Category 5, but the big issue for these bigger storms &#8211; is that they&#8217;re bigger.  They cover more area and any individual person or household is that much less likely to get any assistance they need in the aftermath.   </p>
<p>Some marketing person could turn the various concepts into something that might stick once the measurement or implications have been worked out.</p>
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		<title>
		By: William Hendrixson		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489878</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[William Hendrixson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Nov 2013 06:07:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489878</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I think that the existing scale is fine for mass consumption.  If &quot;Cat 5 incoming&quot; isn&#039;t enough to scare people into doing the right thing, why would &quot;Cat 15&quot; do any better? 

But scientifically, the existing scale is nothing more than a &quot;hi, medium, low&quot; setting on a piece of equipment.  It would seem to me that the best measurement would be to calculate the total energy of the storm and then express that in terms of area. 

I&#039;d be curious to see the total energy of all storms of any given period of time then compared to average land and ocean temperatures over that same period.  Perhaps, more accurately, only the average temperatures over land and ocean where a tropical storm has formed and traveled over...]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that the existing scale is fine for mass consumption.  If &#8220;Cat 5 incoming&#8221; isn&#8217;t enough to scare people into doing the right thing, why would &#8220;Cat 15&#8221; do any better? </p>
<p>But scientifically, the existing scale is nothing more than a &#8220;hi, medium, low&#8221; setting on a piece of equipment.  It would seem to me that the best measurement would be to calculate the total energy of the storm and then express that in terms of area. </p>
<p>I&#8217;d be curious to see the total energy of all storms of any given period of time then compared to average land and ocean temperatures over that same period.  Perhaps, more accurately, only the average temperatures over land and ocean where a tropical storm has formed and traveled over&#8230;</p>
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		By: Should the Saffir-Simpson scale go beyond 5? &#8211; A Few Things Ill Considered		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489877</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Should the Saffir-Simpson scale go beyond 5? &#8211; A Few Things Ill Considered]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Nov 2013 00:28:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489877</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;] is just a quick post to suggest an answer to the question posed by Greg Laden here: should we have a category 6 and above for hurricanes.  My answer is [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;] is just a quick post to suggest an answer to the question posed by Greg Laden here: should we have a category 6 and above for hurricanes.  My answer is [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: The Climate Change Debate Thread - Page 3340		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489876</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[The Climate Change Debate Thread - Page 3340]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2013 22:47:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489876</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[[&#8230;]  [  /center]  A proposal is afoot to add a category 6 storm to the scale.  Should There be a Category 6 for Hurricanes? &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog              Sign in or Register Now to [&#8230;]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[&#8230;]  [  /center]  A proposal is afoot to add a category 6 storm to the scale.  Should There be a Category 6 for Hurricanes? &#8211; Greg Laden&#039;s Blog              Sign in or Register Now to [&#8230;]</p>
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		<title>
		By: Russell		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489875</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Russell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2013 21:31:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489875</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The extension of  maximum storm intensity Greg proposes has long been embodied in the Modified Beaufort Scale  employed by cruising sailors the world over:



Force 0    Smoke rises vertically , sea a mirror for miles around. Hand helmsman full bottle of Demerara rum



Force 1  Sails slack, sea surface barely undulates
Give helmsman second bottle of Barbados rum

Force 2 Sails begin to fill, ripples appear astern

Offer helmsman a lime to put in second bottle of rum.

Force 3 Bow wave appears, slack lines tighten
Place cup of ice at helmsman&#039;s disposal

Force 4 Whitecaps appear, winch handle  needed to trim sail
Start adding cola to helmsman&#039;s rum.

Force 5  Whitecaps begin to shed spray and salt water  ruins helmsman&#039;s Cuba Libre

Force 6  Waves lengthen, helmsman requests beer

Force 7 Helmsman relieved after mistaking  streaks of blowing  foam for head on navigator&#039;s beer

Force 8 Waves heighten and new helmsman switches to shandy

Force 9 Overhanging crests appear on waves, new helmsman switches to ice tea

Force 10 Breaking waves interfere with steering. Helmsman requests black coffee

Force 11 Violently agitated sea surface disappears beneath 
blowing foam, hand helmsman irish coffee after he agrees to set storm trysail

Force 12 . Hurricane. Bow invisible from stern. Give all hands bottles of Demerara rum.

Force 13  Existential Threat. 
St. Elmo&#039;s fire ignites emergency cask of iron jack  stored in bilge.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The extension of  maximum storm intensity Greg proposes has long been embodied in the Modified Beaufort Scale  employed by cruising sailors the world over:</p>
<p>Force 0    Smoke rises vertically , sea a mirror for miles around. Hand helmsman full bottle of Demerara rum</p>
<p>Force 1  Sails slack, sea surface barely undulates<br />
Give helmsman second bottle of Barbados rum</p>
<p>Force 2 Sails begin to fill, ripples appear astern</p>
<p>Offer helmsman a lime to put in second bottle of rum.</p>
<p>Force 3 Bow wave appears, slack lines tighten<br />
Place cup of ice at helmsman&#8217;s disposal</p>
<p>Force 4 Whitecaps appear, winch handle  needed to trim sail<br />
Start adding cola to helmsman&#8217;s rum.</p>
<p>Force 5  Whitecaps begin to shed spray and salt water  ruins helmsman&#8217;s Cuba Libre</p>
<p>Force 6  Waves lengthen, helmsman requests beer</p>
<p>Force 7 Helmsman relieved after mistaking  streaks of blowing  foam for head on navigator&#8217;s beer</p>
<p>Force 8 Waves heighten and new helmsman switches to shandy</p>
<p>Force 9 Overhanging crests appear on waves, new helmsman switches to ice tea</p>
<p>Force 10 Breaking waves interfere with steering. Helmsman requests black coffee</p>
<p>Force 11 Violently agitated sea surface disappears beneath<br />
blowing foam, hand helmsman irish coffee after he agrees to set storm trysail</p>
<p>Force 12 . Hurricane. Bow invisible from stern. Give all hands bottles of Demerara rum.</p>
<p>Force 13  Existential Threat.<br />
St. Elmo&#8217;s fire ignites emergency cask of iron jack  stored in bilge.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Steve Oregon		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489874</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve Oregon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2013 20:31:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489874</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Greg,

Thank you the feedback. 

However,  when you wrote:

&quot;The model that does the best job of predicting the frequency of tropical storms over recent decades, and also predicted this year’s North Atlantic season to reasonable accuracy,&quot;

You inferred the model had been accurate to date.

It maters little what that climate model says when the the theory of increased strength and frequency has not occurred during the past decades of increased CO2 emissions.

There are no real world indications at all that extreme weather is increasing.  Let alone due to AGW.

Yet you are still advising that it is. Why?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg,</p>
<p>Thank you the feedback. </p>
<p>However,  when you wrote:</p>
<p>&#8220;The model that does the best job of predicting the frequency of tropical storms over recent decades, and also predicted this year’s North Atlantic season to reasonable accuracy,&#8221;</p>
<p>You inferred the model had been accurate to date.</p>
<p>It maters little what that climate model says when the the theory of increased strength and frequency has not occurred during the past decades of increased CO2 emissions.</p>
<p>There are no real world indications at all that extreme weather is increasing.  Let alone due to AGW.</p>
<p>Yet you are still advising that it is. Why?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2013/11/10/should-there-be-a-category-6-for-hurricanes/#comment-489873</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Nov 2013 18:29:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=18092#comment-489873</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[There has been an overall increase, most likely, in TS frequency and strength over the decades but this is a difficult thing to measure. Something that happens only a few times a year and has a huge amount of intrinsic variation is hard to track. 

But the models are about the future. You see, that is the stuff that has not happened yet. It is therefore not possible to provide evidence of something that has already happened if the thing hasn&#039;t happened yet, because we expect it to happen in the future. Unfortunately, Dr. Who and those other time travel stories are fiction!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There has been an overall increase, most likely, in TS frequency and strength over the decades but this is a difficult thing to measure. Something that happens only a few times a year and has a huge amount of intrinsic variation is hard to track. </p>
<p>But the models are about the future. You see, that is the stuff that has not happened yet. It is therefore not possible to provide evidence of something that has already happened if the thing hasn&#8217;t happened yet, because we expect it to happen in the future. Unfortunately, Dr. Who and those other time travel stories are fiction!</p>
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