“There’s no reason to expect it to be…” is 100% analogous to “There are reasons to not expect it to be…” Both involve exactly one negative. Neither statements are contradictory, not in the slightest. You are stating that there are reasons to believe that it is not a recovery. I stated that there are no reasons to believe that it is a recovery.

Semantically, yes, there’s a difference: you’re saying there is POSITIVE proof that things are BAD, whereas I’m saying there is NO proof that things are GOOD. Both, however, mean that things are bad, no matter how you slice it. I’m not sure how the plane analogy fits into that, because in that analogy, the statements are contradictory.

The seven summers with the lowest sea ice minimums were all in the past seven years.

Arctic sea ice “recovers” to its 6th-lowest extent in millennia

A study published in 2010 by 18 leading Arctic experts examined Arctic records throughout geologic history and concluded,

“The current reduction in Arctic ice cover started in the late 19th century, consistent with the rapidly warming climate, and became very pronounced over the last three decades. This ice loss appears to be unmatched over at least the last few thousand years and unexplainable by any of the known natural variabilities.”

This must be the same definition of “recovery” certain ideologues are using when referring to the economy.

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean- neither more nor less.”

Not sure if you were responding to #10, or me at #9, but you said the same thing. 😉

or volume … http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

It’s worth noting, however, that Revkin COULD be right: it could be a turning point. We absolutely cannot know that until later. We CAN know that there’s no reason to expect it to be a turning point, rather than simply a year that was not as drastic as 2012.

A new minimum seems to be happening every 2 to 7 years (since the 1990s), with the general trend decreasing. We should expect the next minimum in 2017 or 2018.