Is that because of the uncertainty in timing here, that we can’t accurately predict exactly how soon the ice melt (as noted faster observed than modelled) will really “kick in” even as a rough approximation?

I think the so-called “pause” in warming that really hasn’t been could end very dramatically and horribly indeed with dreadful consequences for the whole world. Once we do start getting strong El Nino’s* plus completely open Arctic ocean plus a stronger solar activity cycle. Well … (Expletive. Long line of expletives.)

* Thinking of which, Greg Laden have you and others here seen this piece :

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/06/el_ni_o_prediction_2014_why_weather_forecasters_were_wrong_about_a_super.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_bot

Whatt’ya think?

We’re apparently already past the tipping point for West Antarctica melting but this story :

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/05/13/4003536.htm

Which arguably should have been the most important and discussed news item of the year seems to have gone largely unnoticed because its isn’t an instant thing. Short term thinking strikes again.

Of course for a lot of people the same exercise here performed with Florida or New York or London instead of Bangladesh may have more impact.

http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/