Comments on: It's the Arithmetic, Stupid (Part ii) https://gregladen.com/blog/2012/09/14/its-the-arithmetic-stupid-part-ii/ Wed, 19 Sep 2012 01:59:07 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.6 By: Last Hussar https://gregladen.com/blog/2012/09/14/its-the-arithmetic-stupid-part-ii/#comment-494671 Wed, 19 Sep 2012 01:59:07 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=13429#comment-494671 (the ‘On’ means the odds are effectively reversed – if Obama was 100/30 then a $10 bet would win $33.33)

]]> By: Last Hussar https://gregladen.com/blog/2012/09/14/its-the-arithmetic-stupid-part-ii/#comment-494670 Wed, 19 Sep 2012 01:57:07 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=13429#comment-494670 Don’t look at polls. Look at Bookmakers. Polsters don’t lose money if they get it wrong. A bookie has to get it right to run his business.

Current odds (18-19 Sept)
Obama 100/30 On
Romney 7/2

For those unschooled
If you put $10 on Obama winning you get $3 back (plus the $10 stake- a total of $13)
$10 on Romney gets you $35 (+$10 stake)
The less the payout, the more likely the bookie thinks it will happen.

The bookies think Obama will win.

]]> By: lyle https://gregladen.com/blog/2012/09/14/its-the-arithmetic-stupid-part-ii/#comment-494669 Sat, 15 Sep 2012 01:25:52 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/?p=13429#comment-494669 Got to keep those eyes on the adds. Recall that is the major purpose of news organizations to get eyes on their adds all else is extra.

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