What baffles me the most about the process is that Americans know that Election Day is in November, and yet I have been hearing about people campaigning since January of last year. Here in Canada, when someone calls an election, 3 months later, we have a new Government. Easy-peasy.

And that, to me, is what’s most fucked up about the system. That it takes so damn long to even pick someone that’s going to run for President, and then the candidates start campaigning all over again. Seems like a huge waste of time and effort to me (not to mention money).

It’s sad that starting 3 years from now, they’ll be doing it for both parties.

I agree with that. Paul has a strong organization, though, so the same could be said for as strong Paul second.

The Teabagger vote is currently split between four candidates : Gingrich, Perry, Santorum and Bachmann. The only threat to Romney’s nomination is one of those four managing to rally that whole section of the vote behind them – and that will largely depend on whether one of them manages to pull away from the others during the early primaries.

If Romney wins, and Santorum finishes a strong second, Romney’s position is far worse than if Romney wins and Paul finishes a distant second, for example.

Who will win in New Hampshire and what will it mean?

My feeling, how I’d answer this as an interested spectator, is that Mitt Romney will be the winner – and he’ll easily end up as the 2012 Republican nominee.

Why? Because Mittens is by far and obviously the least worst (realistic*) Republican candidate even with his mormon magic jocks. I think he’s a safe bet for Republican nominee and would be *very* surprised if one of the many crazy not-Romney contenders somehow gets up. I think it’s not an open field – more just a weak one. These are the best they can do? Yeesh.

Whether he can beat Obama in 2012 is another question again and will depend on a lot of things mainly I predict the state of the US (& global) economy at the time.

Maybe, hopefully, if Romney wins ( approx. 60:40 against?) he won’t be too bad for the USA and world as a relative moderate who may be able to drag the Republicans back towards the centre and calm down the overheated partisan rhetoric & atmosphere somewhat?

PS. Yeah, I’m kinda stating the obvious in most of thisexcept maybe that last paragrpah. Still.
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* Realistic runners sadly NOT incl. Jon Huntsman & including as a very unlikey option the disgusting Santorum. I’d say right now its already down to just Romney, Gingrich, Paul & Santorum.

Grandpa, the howler monkey described as “barely psychic”, will be picking the winner of the New Hampshire primary today. Well, he’ll be choosing a banana with a candidate’s name written on it, but is REALLY that much different from how we do things?