I still there is a language issue here. You say,

‘For one, despite the claim you make that the energy in the system will be the same with or without changes in greenhouse gases, the atmosphere and the ocean nonetheless have more energy in them.’

I would say, yes, the ocean (as an actor with the lower troposphere) definitely has more energy in it, but that your term ‘atmosphere’ is still ambiguous. You mean the lower troposphere. As I already pointed out, an increasing greenhouse effect will DECREASE the temperature of higher layers of the atmosphere, most famously the stratosphere. That decrease in T is due to a decrease in energy because more energy is lost to space than is received from the lower portion of the atmosphere.

So I still stand by my claim that, as a whole, the atmosphere is very close to being energy balanced, even in the presence of an increasing greenhouse effect as satellite shows to some degree of precision. Whether or not that point matters in the context of ‘storminess’ is worth investigating, but I hardly see how, in the way I am framing it, you can contest this notion given the data.

Also,

‘This is a good question, and it is important, but you have to add something: There is also the movement of energy from tropical regions to polar regions.’

was something I had touched on in my previous comment, where I state,

‘So not only does the greenhouse effect cause warming in the lower troposphere, it creates an energy stratification in altitude in the atmosphere. It is this gradient of energy that helps create weather. Energy ‘wants’ to get out of the earth system and does so through convection of warm air to higher and higher LATITUDES and altitudes.’ (I put an emphasis in there)

How an increased greenhouse effect would manifest itself in polar motions is still unknown as well, though I imagine it will have an effect of some magnitude.

I still don’t understand how you can make statements like,

‘”Will that larger temperature difference due to an increased greenhouse effect cause more storms?” The physics say it must…’

however. All the physics says is that there will be a flow of energy from higher to lower states, as posited by the second law of thermodynamics. Those basic physics do not necessitate the formation of large system of low pressure in the form of a hurricane, land or otherwise, in order to flow energy out of the earth system. That formation might happen anyway, but it’s most definitely not necessitated in any meaningful, a priori way.

With more energy in the lower troposphere, there might a significant sheer wind signal that would reduce the number of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. I don’t think there is any definitive way to say what will happen right now.

I would be interested in knowing what you think a ‘signal’ in the tropical or other large storm time series would be though. Would it be one more ‘large’ storm per decade? Or per 5 years? If that signal is going to come out of the noise, what do you think a ‘meaningful’ signal is going to look like?

“Will an increased greenhouse effect due to human emitted CO2 cause a bigger difference in temperature between the lower troposphere and higher altitudes? Yes, but the magnitude of that change in temperature difference is likely not a well-known number. ”

This is a good question, and it is important, but you have to add something: There is also the movement of energy from tropical regions to polar regions. The surface to space gradient is what sets up some aspects of the pattern but most actual weather outside of the ITCZ is shaped by the equatorial-polar transfer.

“Will that larger temperature difference due to an increased greenhouse effect cause more storms? Maybe, but it hasn’t yet. ”

I will fix that sentence for you:

“Will that larger temperature difference due to an increased greenhouse effect cause more storms? The physics say it must, but since the variation in “storminess” is a) large and b) when periodic, periodic on decadal scales and c) proxies for storms are ambiguous and otherwise suck so historical data is limited so far, it hasn’t become an in your face statistical signature yet but we are expecting it to do so. Furthermore, referring back to the point of the post above, when someone says “is this storm caused by global warming” the proper answer is to insist that the question be rephrased to something like “can we expect greater storminess in some systems and regions with increased heat and moisture in the atmosphere caused by agw?””

I think that ‘the earth’ and the ‘lower troposphere’ are being used as synonyms for one another in this discussion. In the case of the lower troposphere, I agree, an increased greenhouse effect will increase the amount of energy in the lower troposphere. Possibly dramatically.

I think that the situation in which we deal with the lower troposphere is totally analogous to having two boxes filled with molecules. Each box can interact with the space around it, but one of boxes has a layer of insulation that slows its exchange of energy with the surroundings. If we keep adding energy, via any mechanism, to both boxes at the same rate, the box with insulation will not be able to dissipate the energy to its surroundings as quickly as the uninsulated box. The insulated box will increase in temperature with respect to the uninsulated box (assuming we’re adding energy at a rate larger than dissipation in both boxes). That increase in temperature is a direct result of an increase in energy relative to the uninsulated box.

I think this is the point that daedalus2u was trying to make and I apologize for calling such thinking ‘non-sense’. Clearly I was picturing something else and should not have used that kind of language. That basic physical understanding is of good utility in modeling the specific case of the lower troposphere.

Alternatively, if we want to project our box analogy onto the whole atmosphere, things get dicey. That’s because the molecules in the atmosphere are under a gravitational potential which creates a barometric distribution of densities. That is, at lower altitudes, the density of molecules is higher than at higher altitudes. This barometric distribution of densities creates layers in the atmosphere that behave differently than the lower troposphere.

Now, when greenhouse gases in the lower troposphere absorb IR light given off by the earth, they are effectively closing the window on energy pathways to higher layers in the atmosphere. So while the greenhouse effect heats the lower troposphere, it COOLS higher layers of the atmosphere because energy is not getting to those layers as easily or readily. Because the higher altitudes are still dissipating energy out to a much colder space surrounding the earth, these higher altitude layers must decrease in temperature.

So not only does the greenhouse effect cause warming in the lower troposphere, it creates an energy stratification in altitude in the atmosphere. It is this gradient of energy that helps create weather. Energy ‘wants’ to get out of the earth system and does so through convection of warm air to higher and higher latitudes and altitudes. This is part of the reason why we have specific weather patterns that form at specific times of year in specific places.

Does the energy difference between layers of the atmosphere mean that there is no net energy being added to the whole earth system (all layers of the atmosphere) by an increased greenhouse effect due to human emitted CO2? Almost exactly, in fact (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/abstracts/files/kevin1997_1.html). The energy into the earth system (all layers of the atmosphere) is balanced to energy out of the earth system to within 1% EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASING GREENHOUSE EFFECT. I will claim that more precise satellite measurements will get this number closer to zero rather than farther from it. The error in the measurements involved is as large or larger than the measurements themselves. Since satellites measurements have only been done in the past 30 years, we also don’t know what the energy balance ‘should be’ without human induced warming. It may be positive (very small amounts of energy added to things like life) naturally.

Will an increased greenhouse effect due to human emitted CO2 cause a bigger difference in temperature between the lower troposphere and higher altitudes? Yes, but the magnitude of that change in temperature difference is likely not a well-known number.

Will that larger temperature difference due to an increased greenhouse effect cause more storms? Maybe, but it hasn’t yet.

Let’s make it simple. Let’s say a unit of the sun’s energy is a truck. The sun, instead of raining down photos, rains down trucks. Most of the trucks land on the equator, and then drive to the poles. Trucks driving along … that’s the weather.

Now imagine two versions of the earth’s system. In one version, half the trucks drive all the way to the poles, and half the trucks, after landing on the earth, float back to the outer atmosphere and evaporate pretty much right away.

In the second version, one hundred percent of the trucks drive to the poles, then ‘dissipate’

You see, the energy does not go away. It is conserved. You know that. But the energy can be one place or another, on place being in the atmosphere. If energy does not leave the atmosphere it can participate in the weather system, if it leaves the atmosphere it can not.

The idea that added energy (reflected in increased measured temperature) increases weather activity somehow, somewhere, somewhen is the expectation based on the physics.

the paper I cite explicitly points out there is no statistically significant increase in tropical storm frequency or intensity in the historical observational trends. If there are some other papers that dispute that finding, I would be interested in reading them.

‘My objection to your earlier attempt stands: With increased energy in the atmosphere there will be increased energetics of the atmospherics.’

Again, you state in the post itself, in no uncertain terms,

‘Your paycheck is automatically deposited every two weeks (that’s energy from the sun) and varies only a little from time to time.’

If the energy entered into the system isn’t changing or changing ‘only a little’, where is the ‘increased energetics’ coming from? You can’t make energy from nothing. It’s just around longer, as you have already pointed out. That’s not ‘extra’ energy. It’s energy that would be there under all scenarios. And so the question becomes what does that energy do before it’s emitted out to space over a longer period of time?

It could lead to more storms. It could not. Again, given the data we have, all we can say is that there is no historical increase in the frequency or intensity of storms.

‘Prove to me you read the fucking thing and I may let you continue to comment.’

Do I get a practice quiz before the real test?:)

Everyone else, I’m very impressed with your ability to confuse a real argument with insults. As a physicist, I especially like the comments alluding to my knowledge of physics. Those are classics.

The northern European/British storminess data would be definitive were it not for the fact that there are also blips in the past of very stormy decades. This may be a matter of sorting out the causes better, but for now that data set can be used to argue for a steady increase in storminess over the last several years, and an increase in the 1910s or 1920s, one caused by increased atmospheric temp, the other by something else.

The fact that this data (storm frequency and intensity) is very messy gives denialists a lot of leeway. The increase of “weather” is simple physics. The nature of that weather mostly TBD.

Consider this: The temperature of something is higher when there is more (heat) energy. More heat energy = higher temperature. (just stating it two ways) In this case it is the atmosphere and oceans. One could substitute the word “increased energy” for the word “warming” and thus “global warming” reads “global increased energy.” Not at all difficult to get when put that way.

My objection to your earlier attempt stands: With increased energy in the atmosphere there will be increased energetics of the atmospherics. We are now starting to see both models and empirical studies showing this. The paper you cite in an effort to discredit my post is an example of a paper that cites positive evidence in models and data of increased activity, but also correctly points out that it is complicated and hard to characterize so far.

“So the notion of ‘null hypothesis’ doesn’t really mean anything in this context. If you are willing to make a claim we can test” …. that was you making the claim of a hypothesis, not me.

New hypothesis:

“The other aspect of your statement, ‘energy increase’, is not really true either. An increase in the greenhouse effect does not increase energy. It slows the earth’s ability to cool itself. ”

You didn’t read my post, did you? I stop here. Prove to me you read the fucking thing and I may let you continue to comment.