Comments on: What will happen to the US Senate next Tuesday? https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/ Thu, 28 Oct 2010 19:52:06 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.8 By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525458 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 19:52:06 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525458 The year I lived in Wis, I got to vote for Jesse Jackson in the primaries. That was the year the head of the parks ran for mayor of Milwaukee, IIRC.

]]> By: Rick https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525457 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 19:07:53 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525457 Re Feingold-Johnson: As always, it depends on which polls you pick. But yes, the consensus seems to be that we cheeseheads are about to trade a principled, intelligent legislator for a guy whose vaunted “business expertise” consisted of being born to the right family, who set him up in the first place and then steered fat contracts his way, and who thinks climate change is caused by sunspots. FiveThirtyEight’s model, for example, gives Johnson an 86% chance of winning (their prediction of the outcome is 47% to 51%).

Dismal doesn’t begin to express the outlook if you live here.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525456 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 01:34:19 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525456 John, good points about Leiberman.

George, is the race that close? The polls look kind of depressingly dismal.

]]> By: George https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525455 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 01:03:03 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525455 I meant you left out some detail I thought was important. *sigh* Typing before I think.

]]> By: George https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525454 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 01:01:21 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525454 You left out Wisconsin. I am a left leaning, independent voter in WI. Democratic incumbent Feingold is in an extremely close race with the Republican challenger. Feingold happens to be the only US senator to vote against Patriot Act I. Why? He seems to be the only one who read the whole thing. I don’t want to lose a candidate who actually reads the proposed legislation before voting! Especially since the challenger seems to be a rubber stamp of no particular merit.

]]> By: John McKay https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525453 Thu, 28 Oct 2010 00:59:37 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525453 i mostly agree with your analysis, but I think you left one thing out. Joe Lieberman is probably going to start caucusing with the Republicans or officially become one.

My logic is this based on the assumption that Lieberman will run for another term in 2012. If he does, he can’t count on the big Republican crossover vote that he got in 2006 and he can’t count on any Democrats voting for him instead of the party’s nominee. His only chance is to claim the nomination of one of the parties. There’s enough bad blood among the Democrats over his 2006 behavior that he’s unlikely to win their nomination if there is any credible alternative. But if he’s able to run in the Republican primary as the incumbent, he has a shot at cinching the nomination.

The wild cards are the party establishments. If the Democratic establishment decides to support him and intimidates credible challengers into staying out of the race, he could get the nomination. But that would lead to massive staying home in November. On the other side, he could face a tea party insurrection if he goes for the Republican nomination.

He’ll do his Hamlet routine of publicly agonizing over the decision, telling us over and over again how principled he is, and forcing both parties to court him. And there’s no guarantee that he’ll get the nomination of the party that bids the most for him, but I think he’ll decide that his best chances lie with the Republicans and his BFFs McCain and Graham.

Then again, he might decide to quit the Senate and take a high paying slot as the other token “liberal” at Fox.

]]> By: Greg Laden https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525452 Wed, 27 Oct 2010 22:51:06 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525452 Oops. Sorry, a formatting error. Fixed now.

]]> By: Peter https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525451 Wed, 27 Oct 2010 22:19:24 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525451 I’m not sure of the party affiliations of all of the folks on your list, but I do know two: Democrat Harry Reid, and Republican businessman Dino Rossi. Given your politics, Greg, I had assumed the list of folks who could use our help would be exclusively Democrat, so I’m surprised at the recommendation to donate to Rossi. Rossi’s opponent is incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray.

Thought you’d want to know. If you’re already aware of this and intentionally recommended Rossi over Murray would you be willing to articulate a reason to prefer Rossi? As a Seattle voter I’ve yet to hear a good one.

]]> By: Nemo https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525450 Wed, 27 Oct 2010 22:15:29 +0000 http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/10/27/what-will-happen-to-the-us-sen/#comment-525450 John Raese is the Republican in that race. Kind of a nut, too.

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