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	Comments on: 1969 Global Warming White House Memo	</title>
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	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/</link>
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		<title>
		By: Passerby		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521239</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Passerby]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Aug 2010 23:28:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521239</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[*sigh* Nixon launched the USEPA:

&#039;On July 9, 1970, citing rising concerns over environmental protection and conservation, President Richard Nixon transmitted Reorganization Plan No. 3 to the United States Congress by executive order, creating the EPA as a single, independent agency  from a number of smaller arms of different federal agencies. Prior to the establishment of the EPA, the federal government was not structured to comprehensively regulate environmental pollutants.&#039;

One of the first tasks was to extend the Clean Air Act of 1963 and Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

Air Pollution Control Acts were introduced elsewhere at about the same time.  Regulations in Canada, the UK and Europe were instrumental in reducing the extent and number of serious smog events in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1980s-90s. At about the same time, New Zealand promulgated similar air pollution controls and enforcement and Australia followed suit in 1994. 

By the 1990s, a more sinister air pollution source emerged that would negatively impact North American airsheds, as global consumerism fueled economic growth in Asia: transboundary aerosol transport to the Western US and Canada.

China has emerged as the number one importer of coal, and Australia the number one exporter.  China and India, as consumers of coal from the Southern Hemisphere, are effectively moving pollution risk to the North, where it will have the most impact through icecap and glacier ablation.
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>*sigh* Nixon launched the USEPA:</p>
<p>&#8216;On July 9, 1970, citing rising concerns over environmental protection and conservation, President Richard Nixon transmitted Reorganization Plan No. 3 to the United States Congress by executive order, creating the EPA as a single, independent agency  from a number of smaller arms of different federal agencies. Prior to the establishment of the EPA, the federal government was not structured to comprehensively regulate environmental pollutants.&#8217;</p>
<p>One of the first tasks was to extend the Clean Air Act of 1963 and Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.</p>
<p>Air Pollution Control Acts were introduced elsewhere at about the same time.  Regulations in Canada, the UK and Europe were instrumental in reducing the extent and number of serious smog events in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1980s-90s. At about the same time, New Zealand promulgated similar air pollution controls and enforcement and Australia followed suit in 1994. </p>
<p>By the 1990s, a more sinister air pollution source emerged that would negatively impact North American airsheds, as global consumerism fueled economic growth in Asia: transboundary aerosol transport to the Western US and Canada.</p>
<p>China has emerged as the number one importer of coal, and Australia the number one exporter.  China and India, as consumers of coal from the Southern Hemisphere, are effectively moving pollution risk to the North, where it will have the most impact through icecap and glacier ablation.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521238</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Aug 2010 04:36:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521238</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;em&gt;I am absolutely certain of one thing. People in positions of trust have violated the principles of the scientific method.&lt;/em&gt;

You are absolutely certain that no one else should be certain?  Or is it that people can be certain of what you think is true but for anything else, they can&#039;t be?

Fran Manns, please refer to my policy on the use of my blog as a platform for nefarious activities:  http://tinyurl.com/26esl3w  You have been warned.  

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I am absolutely certain of one thing. People in positions of trust have violated the principles of the scientific method.</em></p>
<p>You are absolutely certain that no one else should be certain?  Or is it that people can be certain of what you think is true but for anything else, they can&#8217;t be?</p>
<p>Fran Manns, please refer to my policy on the use of my blog as a platform for nefarious activities:  <a href="http://tinyurl.com/26esl3w" rel="nofollow ugc">http://tinyurl.com/26esl3w</a>  You have been warned.  </p>
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		<title>
		By: Divalent		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521237</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Divalent]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Aug 2010 01:08:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521237</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&quot;The reference to Seattle is strange.&quot;

John Ehrlichman was from the Seattle area.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The reference to Seattle is strange.&#8221;</p>
<p>John Ehrlichman was from the Seattle area.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Fran Manns		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521236</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Fran Manns]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 20:25:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521236</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Climategate was forecast...

I am absolutely certain of one thing.  People in positions of trust have violated the principles of the scientific method.  The minute you believe your own hypothesis, you are a dead duck as a scientist.

â??What is the current scientific consensus on the conclusions reached by Drs. Mann, Bradley and Hughes? [Referring to the hockey stick propagated in UN IPCC 2001 by Michael Mann and debunked by McIntyre and McKitrick in 2003.]

Ans: Based on the literature we have reviewed, there is no overarching consensus on MBH98/99.   As analyzed in our social network, there is a tightly knit group of individuals who passionately believe in their thesis.  However, our perception is that this group has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism and, moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that they can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.â?  

AD HOC COMMITTEE REPORT ON THE â??HOCKEY  STICKâ?? GLOBAL CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION, also known as The Wegman report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University with the contributions of John T. Rigsby, III, Naval Surface Warfare Center, and Denise M. Reeves, MITRE Corporation.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Climategate was forecast&#8230;</p>
<p>I am absolutely certain of one thing.  People in positions of trust have violated the principles of the scientific method.  The minute you believe your own hypothesis, you are a dead duck as a scientist.</p>
<p>â??What is the current scientific consensus on the conclusions reached by Drs. Mann, Bradley and Hughes? [Referring to the hockey stick propagated in UN IPCC 2001 by Michael Mann and debunked by McIntyre and McKitrick in 2003.]</p>
<p>Ans: Based on the literature we have reviewed, there is no overarching consensus on MBH98/99.   As analyzed in our social network, there is a tightly knit group of individuals who passionately believe in their thesis.  However, our perception is that this group has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism and, moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that they can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.â?  </p>
<p>AD HOC COMMITTEE REPORT ON THE â??HOCKEY  STICKâ?? GLOBAL CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION, also known as The Wegman report was authored by Edward J. Wegman, George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins University with the contributions of John T. Rigsby, III, Naval Surface Warfare Center, and Denise M. Reeves, MITRE Corporation.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Mike Olson		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521235</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Olson]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 05:17:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521235</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thanks for the specifics!  I&#039;m positive Arrhenius was the chemist Asimov referenced.  As to being badly wrong, I&#039;d have to agree.  I read to different collections of Asimov&#039;s essays, in one, from the early sixties he pointed out the great potential for global warming.  In the later he noticed that the temp was not increasing as predicted.  He posited exactly what you quoted on the link...aerosols were stabilizing the temperature...I&#039;d say I had my dates a bit wrong.  In the essay I had read he indicated that if the effects of aerosols were ever limited we could expect the warming trend.  As I recall sometime in the seventies those aerosols became banned or limited.  My impression was that he was chasing the best available information at the time.  I&#039;d point out as well, although he was no expert on climate, he was a biochemist as well as a science populizer.  Of course I could be mistaken and he was simply off...it&#039;s been awhile since I&#039;ve read those essays.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for the specifics!  I&#8217;m positive Arrhenius was the chemist Asimov referenced.  As to being badly wrong, I&#8217;d have to agree.  I read to different collections of Asimov&#8217;s essays, in one, from the early sixties he pointed out the great potential for global warming.  In the later he noticed that the temp was not increasing as predicted.  He posited exactly what you quoted on the link&#8230;aerosols were stabilizing the temperature&#8230;I&#8217;d say I had my dates a bit wrong.  In the essay I had read he indicated that if the effects of aerosols were ever limited we could expect the warming trend.  As I recall sometime in the seventies those aerosols became banned or limited.  My impression was that he was chasing the best available information at the time.  I&#8217;d point out as well, although he was no expert on climate, he was a biochemist as well as a science populizer.  Of course I could be mistaken and he was simply off&#8230;it&#8217;s been awhile since I&#8217;ve read those essays.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521234</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 04:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521234</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I wonder what the Tasmanians thought of global warming.  Apparently, it was enough to put them of fish!]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I wonder what the Tasmanians thought of global warming.  Apparently, it was enough to put them of fish!</p>
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		<title>
		By: iain		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521233</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[iain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 03:13:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521233</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Do not get me wrong.  I am not seeking to offer any comfort to Climate Change Sceptics (if anything I am warning you that drawing attention to this memo will do that--and that is a Bad Thing).  But I am trying to make a more general point in sympathy with the sorts of things you often write about in your blog.  The characterisation I have made of the relations between theory, hypothesis and data apply also to evolutionary arguments, to the Club of Rome predictions etc.  

And my points about the really important things to teach people about science are still valid, and made in the context of a report from Oz that there are fundamentalists teaching in Australian Schools that people co-existed with dinosaurs without scrutiny from School administrators because religious education is taught by volunteers.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Do not get me wrong.  I am not seeking to offer any comfort to Climate Change Sceptics (if anything I am warning you that drawing attention to this memo will do that&#8211;and that is a Bad Thing).  But I am trying to make a more general point in sympathy with the sorts of things you often write about in your blog.  The characterisation I have made of the relations between theory, hypothesis and data apply also to evolutionary arguments, to the Club of Rome predictions etc.  </p>
<p>And my points about the really important things to teach people about science are still valid, and made in the context of a report from Oz that there are fundamentalists teaching in Australian Schools that people co-existed with dinosaurs without scrutiny from School administrators because religious education is taught by volunteers.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521232</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 02:53:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521232</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Iain you are partly correct that skeptics can take 40 year old memos written by English Majors turned Politicians (or history major, or whatever Danny Pat was) and make hay of it.  But let&#039;s not give them too much help!!!!

Anyway, I would not expect the numbers to be even close, given that these are coming from a guy who thinks maybe (and he may have been correct) that there are two &quot;monitoring stations&quot;)  The memo does not say a 10 foot rise in sea level by 2000 nor does it link 20% increase in CO2 with a high sea level rise, but rather a rise in CO2 which he got almost exactly right (we&#039;re at 20 in 2010) leading to warming which he got way wrong, the kind of error one would expect if someone used the wrong number.  But actually, I&#039;m pretty sure the Co2-&gt;T formula we all use today did not exist in its present form yet) and THEN the sea levels rise.

Of course, the 10 foot number is pulled out of his butt.

The reference to Seattle is strange.  
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Iain you are partly correct that skeptics can take 40 year old memos written by English Majors turned Politicians (or history major, or whatever Danny Pat was) and make hay of it.  But let&#8217;s not give them too much help!!!!</p>
<p>Anyway, I would not expect the numbers to be even close, given that these are coming from a guy who thinks maybe (and he may have been correct) that there are two &#8220;monitoring stations&#8221;)  The memo does not say a 10 foot rise in sea level by 2000 nor does it link 20% increase in CO2 with a high sea level rise, but rather a rise in CO2 which he got almost exactly right (we&#8217;re at 20 in 2010) leading to warming which he got way wrong, the kind of error one would expect if someone used the wrong number.  But actually, I&#8217;m pretty sure the Co2->T formula we all use today did not exist in its present form yet) and THEN the sea levels rise.</p>
<p>Of course, the 10 foot number is pulled out of his butt.</p>
<p>The reference to Seattle is strange.  </p>
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		<title>
		By: Composer99		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521231</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Composer99]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 02:03:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521231</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Iain, I think you may have the Fahrenheit-Celsius ratio the wrong way around.

Mike, the Swedish chemist was probably Svante Arrhenius (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius), who calculated a possible temperature change from a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 1896.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Iain, I think you may have the Fahrenheit-Celsius ratio the wrong way around.</p>
<p>Mike, the Swedish chemist was probably Svante Arrhenius (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius" rel="nofollow ugc">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svante_Arrhenius</a>), who calculated a possible temperature change from a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 1896.</p>
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		<title>
		By: iain		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521230</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[iain]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 01:51:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2010/08/01/1969-global-warming-white-hous/#comment-521230</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Ooops.  I just discovered something about my Blackberry.  It does not convert numbers from F to C but temperatures.  So 7degF is -13.89degC.  Sorry, it seemed wrong but I was not thinking before I posted.  Thanks for the correction.
 
There is something very interesting about the interaction between such informal assertions and public expectations, as there is about the public expectations about the veracities of theories and the possibility of absolute truth of hypotheses derived from them.  The issues about the failures of public education in science are more complex than a recent survey in Oz revealed.  It is less important that students are ignorant of advanced mathematics or the &quot;facts&quot; of advanced physics, as that they are ignorant about the process of science and how they should react to scientific uncertainties. 
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ooops.  I just discovered something about my Blackberry.  It does not convert numbers from F to C but temperatures.  So 7degF is -13.89degC.  Sorry, it seemed wrong but I was not thinking before I posted.  Thanks for the correction.</p>
<p>There is something very interesting about the interaction between such informal assertions and public expectations, as there is about the public expectations about the veracities of theories and the possibility of absolute truth of hypotheses derived from them.  The issues about the failures of public education in science are more complex than a recent survey in Oz revealed.  It is less important that students are ignorant of advanced mathematics or the &#8220;facts&#8221; of advanced physics, as that they are ignorant about the process of science and how they should react to scientific uncertainties. </p>
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