Comments on: Who gets the first flu shots?

By: Art

Art — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 22:36:24 +0000

Okay, we are a little behind the power curve on flu vaccines but, on the up side, we have enough Viagra and Cialis to give every male on earth a hard-on for a month.

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 18:55:48 +0000

Dunc: the growth rate varies across flu strains as well, so it is unpredictable. But there is a way to get twice as much flu vaccine at the end of the growth period, and it does not require tricking biology in any way whatsoever!

And no, not really interested in post hoc economic efficiency arguments. We are making enough vaccine when we are throwing some of it out.

Regarding the 1918 flu mortality rate, it was actually more like 10-20 percent.

By: MadScientist

MadScientist — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:39:57 +0000

@Aaron: Making up a large batch to treat a large fraction of the population is not economical; most of it will simply go to waste. I doubt anyone has large enough facilities to produce a vaccine in large enough quantities in a short enough time either. Unlike many vaccines, any flu vaccine is essentially only useful for that one flu season; fighting the flu is still a huge challenge.

Government can require immunization records for all travelers, but this is unlikely unless the disease is a big killer. Also, the vaccines are not 100% effective so you’d need quarantine on top of vaccine records and given the number of travelers that just isn’t possible.

By: Aaron

Aaron — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:50:42 +0000

With other vaccines herd immunity is a major benefit, is there a reason why they don’t make enough flu vaccines for everyone and try to get there?

Is it because of the effectiveness (especially if it’s the wrong strain) or the fact that you wouldn’t be able to convince
enough people to get vaccinated?

Similarly do they try campaigns targeted at salesmen and frequent travelers to try to cut down the spread? Even personally I’ve wondered how much benefit there is in myself getting vaccinated just to remove myself as a potential carrier.

By: Nathan Myers

Nathan Myers — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:21:18 +0000

The 1918 flu killed only a percent or two of the people who contracted it; swine flu will be no worse. What made 1918’s notable was that it killed the (previously) healthiest percent. A flu that kills old and already-sick people is easy not to notice, and, sure enough, we don’t.

By: MadScientist

MadScientist — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:01:56 +0000

If we get something like the 1918 flu it will be much worse; just about any place is far more crowded now than 100 years ago and ease of travel (fly to anywhere on the planet in under 48 hours, vs take a ship and a few weeks or months) will make it impossible to contain an epidemic. When the swine flu was first identified people were talking about a human vaccine trial in a matter of weeks; one year later the human trials are still being planned.

How to survive an epidemic? Keep 3 months stock of food and when you hear news of the killer flu in the neighborhood, take 3 months off work and hope you’ve avoided the disease. I doubt many would have the discipline to do that. Another alternative is one that worked during the great plagues; head off into more remote areas far away from people. Of course when 80% of the city wants to get out of that same city you have the stuff that stories are made of.

By: Dunc

Dunc — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 05:26:22 +0000

I’m a little uhappy that our health care system has not figured out how to produce sufficient supplies of effective vaccines against novel flus.

Why can’t 9 women have a baby in 1 month? Damn biology!

Personally, I’d find it very useful if I could culture enough brewers yeast for a 22L batch from a slant in less than 5 days, but it’s simply not going to happen. When you’re growing things, you have to accept that they have a maximum growth rate.

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:14:39 +0000

It all depends on if this mimics the 1918 flu, which in all respects including morphogy it has.

In any event, at some point, a killer pandemic is going to come along. If the best we can do is a few tens of millions of doses, then the basic idea that the human population problem is going to be handed this way is something you can bet on.

But don’t panic.

By: MadScientist

MadScientist — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:04:39 +0000

Oooo – look out for the big bad swine flu! Let’s see – so far it has a mortality rate about on par with the common flu if not lower (and an actual # of kills which is far lower due to infection of a drastically smaller population) – it’s not whacking as many babies or oldies as the usual flu. The people who are dying have other horrible medical problems; it’s not as Fox news announces that “young healthy adults” drop dead.

So – if an effective vaccine is created then good, but if not it’s nothing to worry about (unless of course the next round of swine flu is a good killer).

By: KarinNH

KarinNH — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:40:42 +0000

Ah, that should say forced to take the shot.