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	<title>
	Comments on: The Minnesota Recount is Over	</title>
	<atom:link href="https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/</link>
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	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:35:18 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>
		By: Ana		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529264</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ana]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:35:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529264</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Coleman to speak at 3 CST (live feed at theuptake.org).  Will he concede and let the oh so important &quot;healing process&quot; begin?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Coleman to speak at 3 CST (live feed at theuptake.org).  Will he concede and let the oh so important &#8220;healing process&#8221; begin?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529263</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 12:26:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529263</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Thanks.  SO, you can go and vote for me as best science blog then!  (Don&#039;t let me come in last!!!)]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks.  SO, you can go and vote for me as best science blog then!  (Don&#8217;t let me come in last!!!)</p>
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		<title>
		By: Jason		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529262</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jason]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 12:12:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529262</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Speaking of graciousness, thanks for all your work covering this process.  I&#039;ve been glued to this site for much better reporting on the status of the whole election process than I was able to find in the papers.  I think there are a number of us who typically don&#039;t comment but appreciate it a lot.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of graciousness, thanks for all your work covering this process.  I&#8217;ve been glued to this site for much better reporting on the status of the whole election process than I was able to find in the papers.  I think there are a number of us who typically don&#8217;t comment but appreciate it a lot.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529261</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 11:47:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529261</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Jason:

On number 1, yes, he is going to have to go to the USSC because the Minnesota court is going to refuse his plea.  However, the USSC is not going to seat the loser of the fair election.  We hope.

As to your second point, yes, that could work in some contexts, but not in Minnesota.  Failure to be gracious and back out at this point, now that the process is done, will end his career in this state.  ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jason:</p>
<p>On number 1, yes, he is going to have to go to the USSC because the Minnesota court is going to refuse his plea.  However, the USSC is not going to seat the loser of the fair election.  We hope.</p>
<p>As to your second point, yes, that could work in some contexts, but not in Minnesota.  Failure to be gracious and back out at this point, now that the process is done, will end his career in this state.  </p>
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		<title>
		By: Jason		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529260</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jason]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:37:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529260</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I am completely confident that Franken has won and will be seated.  However, in response to the 0.000 chance, I have two questions:

1) Isn&#039;t he hinging his hopes on overturns in higher, possibly the US Supreme, courts?

2) Wouldn&#039;t he improve his political position by being seen fighting and possibly pulling the martyr act that he was screwed out of office in the courts rather than meekly giving up?  I don&#039;t understand the assertion that he can run for office again if he concedes but is doomed for life if he fights.  Anyone who would have voted for the dolt in the first place can only be encouraged by his willingness to fight.  No?  If it was Franken I would want him to keep trying, despite the odds.

]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am completely confident that Franken has won and will be seated.  However, in response to the 0.000 chance, I have two questions:</p>
<p>1) Isn&#8217;t he hinging his hopes on overturns in higher, possibly the US Supreme, courts?</p>
<p>2) Wouldn&#8217;t he improve his political position by being seen fighting and possibly pulling the martyr act that he was screwed out of office in the courts rather than meekly giving up?  I don&#8217;t understand the assertion that he can run for office again if he concedes but is doomed for life if he fights.  Anyone who would have voted for the dolt in the first place can only be encouraged by his willingness to fight.  No?  If it was Franken I would want him to keep trying, despite the odds.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Eric Lund		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529259</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Lund]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:17:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529259</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Aaron: For the assumptions you used, your result is an upper bound. Chebyshev&#039;s inequality is a limit to how fat the tail can be. For most real distributions the tail will be thinner--much thinner, if you assume a normal Gaussian distribution.

But if the ballots in question are preferentially from precincts that favored Coleman to begin with (as Greg implies), the actual probability could be significantly higher, IF these ballots are counted.

Here is the problem for Coleman: From here on out he has to overcome a presumption that the election was correctly decided in Franken&#039;s favor. That presumption includes not counting the absentee ballots in question. Coleman would have the burden of proof to demonstrate that the ballots were improperly excluded.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Aaron: For the assumptions you used, your result is an upper bound. Chebyshev&#8217;s inequality is a limit to how fat the tail can be. For most real distributions the tail will be thinner&#8211;much thinner, if you assume a normal Gaussian distribution.</p>
<p>But if the ballots in question are preferentially from precincts that favored Coleman to begin with (as Greg implies), the actual probability could be significantly higher, IF these ballots are counted.</p>
<p>Here is the problem for Coleman: From here on out he has to overcome a presumption that the election was correctly decided in Franken&#8217;s favor. That presumption includes not counting the absentee ballots in question. Coleman would have the burden of proof to demonstrate that the ballots were improperly excluded.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Pyre		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529258</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pyre]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:14:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529258</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[&lt;i&gt;&quot;... any voter in the state of Minnesota... can sue for an Election Challenge.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;

Meaning Coleman can drop discreetly out of the matter, while some deep-pocketed front for the right wing -- with a bland name like &quot;Citizens for Minnesota&quot; -- backs some other individual Republican to take up the fight.

The GOP knows how to leave no fingerprints. Remember the Swift Boaters, &quot;totally unrelated&quot; to W&#039;s re-election campaign?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>&#8220;&#8230; any voter in the state of Minnesota&#8230; can sue for an Election Challenge.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Meaning Coleman can drop discreetly out of the matter, while some deep-pocketed front for the right wing &#8212; with a bland name like &#8220;Citizens for Minnesota&#8221; &#8212; backs some other individual Republican to take up the fight.</p>
<p>The GOP knows how to leave no fingerprints. Remember the Swift Boaters, &#8220;totally unrelated&#8221; to W&#8217;s re-election campaign?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Joel		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529257</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joel]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 06 Jan 2009 07:32:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529257</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Congratulations to Mr. Franken.

As for Mr. Coleman, I have one question. Why do you hate democracy?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Congratulations to Mr. Franken.</p>
<p>As for Mr. Coleman, I have one question. Why do you hate democracy?</p>
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		<title>
		By: Aaron Luchko		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529256</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Aaron Luchko]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 21:03:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529256</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Ok, I didn&#039;t know they were specific to a precinct so I just used the 50-50.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, I didn&#8217;t know they were specific to a precinct so I just used the 50-50.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Greg Laden		</title>
		<link>https://gregladen.com/blog/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529255</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Laden]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:12:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/01/05/the-minnesota-recount-is-over/#comment-529255</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Your math is fine but your methodology sucks.  Well, not really, it&#039;s pretty good. But I took the actual data by precinct and bootstrapped it.  ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your math is fine but your methodology sucks.  Well, not really, it&#8217;s pretty good. But I took the actual data by precinct and bootstrapped it.  </p>
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