Comments on: Early Exposure To Lead May Be a Factor in Adulthood Criminal Arrest Rates

By: Stephanie Z

Stephanie Z — Fri, 30 May 2008 07:18:34 +0000

And the way lead paint comes off the wall in those bubbling, brittle chips is irresistible even to an intelligent adult. How can you not pick at them?

By: the real cmf

the real cmf — Fri, 30 May 2008 03:51:33 +0000

uncle noel:”Maybe less intelligent kids are more likely to eat paint.”If it helps you at all to understand the causationNoel, cwestyin: I was a mensa kid from an impoverished clan: we had less food in the house than we had pretty paint chips.Paint chips provided intellectual sustenance, if only because they looked healthy, and colorful.They also kept the tastebuds active, and satisfied the urge to chew, in lieu of actual food.

By: Stephanie Z

Stephanie Z — Thu, 29 May 2008 21:35:07 +0000

I suspect we’re in one of those neighborhoods. At the very least, we’re on a busy street, and all the lead in that gas had to go somewhere. And as much as I love our mulberry trees, I won’t be sorry to replace them with something that will be less tempting to neighborhood kids. I’d have done it sooner, but many of the kids around here don’t actually think food comes on plants.

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Thu, 29 May 2008 08:56:43 +0000

Josh: The study did included SES but did not find it statistically imortant. ” …the sample was relatively homogenous with respect to sociodemographic variables such as SES and ethnicity; thus decreasing the extent to which strong confounding factors might generate spurious associations.”Everyone: Conscious behavior related to lead exposure (avoidance) as a factor presumes that these people (any people) a) have a clue as to where the lead is and how the exposure occurs and b) have a way of seeing/tasting/feeling/sensing lead in the environment. Neither is true. Little kids chewing lead paint off the window sill is the poster-child of the movement to control lead exposure. But what about the kid playing in the back yard breathing in the dust from the garden mom keeps to ensure a supply of healthy fresh veggies?There are urban environments where there is enough lead in the topsoil to make it economically feasible to mine it.

By: Mike Haubrich, FCD

Mike Haubrich, FCD — Thu, 29 May 2008 08:01:18 +0000

One of the hundreds, nay, thousands of documents I signed at the closing when I purchased an old house (1924) was the lead-based paint disclosure. So, I wonder if the fact that the older housing common to areas in which the study was run take into account that people who live in un-repaired housing liable to have such a hazard, also have other factors in their lives which tend to higher crime rates.Crime's a mosaic, and while I think this study is interesting, I would expect that as the housing stock is replaced with that which doesn't have lead-based paint we would see a decrease in crime. Whether or not it would be statistically significant is another question.I'm just sayin.'

By: Joshua Zelinsky

Joshua Zelinsky — Wed, 28 May 2008 22:47:43 +0000

Greg, I haven’t looked at the study in detail but I think you underestimate Beowulf’s criticism. Even if everyone is poor income still needs to be controlled for. Indeed, if everyone’s income is less then a small income difference is a larger proportion of total income. This is a serious concern.I’d also be concerned that families that are more careful about worrying about lead exposure levels would also do a better job raising kids (I should note that example of someone I know getting lead poisoning which I am most familiar with happened with a moderate income family (they weren’t incredibly well off but by no means poor) and the family didn’t have any reason to think there was any problem until it was too late to do much).Now that I’m done with all the correlation v. causation criticisms, I’m now going to suggest a causal mechanism (or at least a directional possibility). IIRC early lead exposure is also correlated with poorer impulse control. Poorer impulse control leads to higher arrest rates in a farily obvious fashion.

By: uncle noel

uncle noel — Wed, 28 May 2008 13:50:36 +0000

It’s not just poverty that could be a confounding factor. Maybe less intelligent kids are more likely to eat paint. But I don’t mean to say studies like this aren’t important, just that they provide less certain information than experiments. And it drives me crazy when the media report a correlation as causation. It’s often completely misleading. I didn’t even think of the Tuskegee type issue you bring up!

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 28 May 2008 12:16:29 +0000

Noel: Right. But this experiment is freakishly close to an experiment. I mean, if some kid had high lead levels, did they do anything about it or just watch to see if he got arrested later? This is not clear.

By: uncle noel

uncle noel — Wed, 28 May 2008 10:25:25 +0000

The correlation = causation fallacy is a concern with this kind if study. Now if we could experiment with babies…hey, why is everyone looking at me like that?

By: Greg Laden

Greg Laden — Wed, 28 May 2008 10:15:08 +0000

Beowulff: In this case, everybody in the study was poor, so they did not need to control for it. I’m pretty sure you are right … if they compared this area to a matched suburb, the would probably find very little lead.