Florida Primary Results: A Pattern Emerges

First the results: New Gingrich Did Not Lose by As Much As You Might have Guessed He Might.

By the numbers, as estimated by various news agencies:

ROMN: 47
GING: 32
SANT: 13
PAUL: 07
OTHR: 01

That’s a mighty strong showing for “Other” … it will be interesting to look into that.

Here’s the sequence over the last several days showing the March of the Numbers comparing Romney and Gingrich in polls

The last gazillian polls leading up to the Florida Primary. Romney has clearly always been the frontrunner. Except when he wasn't. These squiggles are comprised of moving averages that cover three polls in a row ordered approximately in temporal sequence, from Real Clear Politics.

The pattern we see in Florida reflects the pattern of the overall primary process. No one ever had any doubt that Romney was going to win this primary, but in fact, there were two times when he was not ahead in the polls, and at the last minute, note that Romney was dropping in numbers with Gingrich gaining . Ron Paul remains irrelevant.

Here’s the bigger picture. Before the Iowa Caucuses Romney was considered the most likely person to win. Santorum won.

Before the New Hampshire Primary was considered the most likely person to win. But Oscar the Grouch could have won that primary had he been from the Greater Boston Area, of which New Hampshire is a minor suburb.

Before the North Carolina Primary, Romney was considered to be the most likely person to win. Um. New Gingrich won that primary.

So, to date, the candidate who is repeatedly labeled as the most likely to win the nomination has won half of the contests and is being dogged by a formidable, if obnoxious, opponent.

Furthermore, TV pundits are getting something else wrong: Continue reading

The Topsy Turvy World of the Republican Primary Process. And a dancing otter.

After a surprising showing in South Carolina, New Gingrich pulled way ahead of Mitt Romney, in pre-Florida Primary polling. But that sudden increase in numbers quickly eased off and Gingrich and Romney remained very close for a few days, with Romney a few points ahead. Over the last 36 hours, Romney has put significant distance between his candidacy and Gingrich’s, with Romney polling consistently above 40% and Gingrich consistanly double digits behind. Santorum is holding steady at 12-14%, and nobody cares about Ron Paul.

However, in comparing all of the candidates in polls asking people across the country which Republican they would vote for, Romney is NOT a clear winner. In fact, Gingrich tends to score a couple of points ahead of Romney. In one recent poll (NBC/Wall Street Journal) Gingrich was 9 points ahead. In the most recent poll (Gallup Tracking) Gingrich was just 2 points ahead.

But the preference for Gingrich does not align with national polls comparing the various republican candidates with Obama. In these polls, Romney tends to come closer to Obama’s lead than does Gingrich, who tends to get his ass whupped by the President, with Barack Obama showing a double-digit lead over the hapless and blithering ex-speaker.

But a lot can change in two days. Gingrich is on the attack against Romney, and his main point of attack seems to be to point out how Romney is on the attack against Gingrich. I don’t expect this to change the outcome of the Florida Primary. Romney will win there, although is it always possible that he will win by less than the current polls suggest. But what may happen over the longer term is a shift in the overall view of Gingrich and Romney by Republican voters in general. I expect there to be a downgrading of support for both “Front Runners” as they continue to slam each other. Santorum will come out a minor winner over the medium term, possibly even taking a state or two if his strategy is managed effectively and his money holds out.

Just for fun here’s Ron Paul’s attack ad ad d d attack attack ack ack ad d against Gingrich:
Continue reading

The Florida Primary: A First Look

The Florida Primary is set for Tuesday, January 31st. Romney, Gingrich, Paul and Santorum are running. For a while there it looked like Gingrich was an easy winner, because his numbers were jumping rapidly in the polls, but things have settled down and it is starting to look more like a Gingrich-Romney horse race. Here are the numbers: Continue reading

Romney Leads For Iowa, but numbers suggest he is not really a favorite

The Iowa Caucus (not to be confused with the mostly bogus Iowa Straw Poll, where Michele Bachmann bought herself a good lead) will be held Tuesday. A Caucus is an actual political event and it is not insignificant. If you hear someone say “Oh, caucuses don’t mean anything” or “A caucus is not a real thing” or whatever, start asking them questions and you’ll quickly learn that they don’t know much about the political process. Very likely, they’ve never been to one. Have you? If you haven’t, and your state has them, give it at try!

Amazingly, Mitt Romney is in the lead according to a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, going into Tuesday’s caucuses, but the lead is slim. And the configuration of the field seems at least a little stable. The CNN poll of December 28th shows this pattern: Continue reading

Republican Candidates Need To Make A List And Let Us Check It Twice

Over the last few years we’ve seen increasing evidence that the philosophy of Republican elected officials and candidates is to a) garner support from specific groups and then, b) withhold representation of any other groups once elected and even c) go out of their way to harm groups that opposed them during the election.

A couple years back there was an incident of an elected (state level) official contacted by some sort of citizens group for a meeting (a normal thing to happen) and he/she let slip that this group would never have an audience because of opposition during the election.

The other day a gay man asked New Gingrich about his position on engaging gay people once in office, and Gingrich’s reply was to tell the man to vote for Obama.

I asked him if he’s elected, how does he plan to engage gay Americans. How are we to support him? And he told me to support Obama,” said Arnold. […]

“When you ask somebody a question and you expect them to support all Americans and have everyone’s general interest,”Arnold said. “It’s a little bit frustrating and disheartening when you’re told to support the other side. That he doesn’t need your support.”

quoted from the Des Moines Register, here.

So, here’s what I think. Republican candidates, while running for office, should be presented with lists … during the debates would be a good time … of different factions of Americans, and then they must declare if they will represent these people or not once elected.

Will you or will you not be an effective, thoughful, and fair representative for …

  • Gay people
  • Transgender people
  • People who support single payer health care
    Union member
  • And so on and so forth

Then these results can be vetted by the press (they are so good at that, after all) and adjusted to reflect realty, and the results hung by the voting booth so people are clear on what they are doing when they pull the lever.

President Newt Gingrich Would Arrest Pro Church-State Separation Judges

This is why I don’t want to hear you belly-aching about Obama and telling us all about how you can’t vote for him because he didn’t do some thing you for some quite possibly invalid reason you thought he would do despite having only two years without a Republican congress and almost no time without a Fillibuster.

Any single one of these stooges running for the republicans, including and maybe especially, New Gingrich, could be the next president of the United States if a) enough liberal stay home and b) enough liberals and progressives vote for a third party or do some other stupid thing, ensuring that Obama is not re-elected.

Gingrich has stated that he would use the Federal Marshall Service to arrest judges who make decisions that he does not agree with. Consider the following interview:

SCHIEFFER: One of the things you say is that if you don’t like what a court has done, that Congress should subpoena the judge and bring him before Congress and hold a Congressional hearing… how would you enforce that? Would you send the Capitol Police down to arrest him?

GINGRICH: Sure. If you had to. Or you’d instruct the Justice Department to send a U.S. Marshal.

From Think Progress.

So, get all passive aggressive at Obama, maybe you get Gingrich.

Newt Gingrich: Palestinians Don’t Exist

There is a theory that the Palestinian identity is a fairly recent invention. Maybe. But if so, the Israeli identity is even more recently invented if the same standards apply. And, the American identity, by the same standards, while rather old today, was very young at the time of the War of 1812. Had Newt Gingrich been around then, would he have said that there was no America, only a British Colony that needed to be straightened out?

I’ve always wondered, ever since Gingrich’s “Contract On America” why he hated his own people so much. Now, I ask, why does he hate the Palestinians, and by extent ion, the Israelis, and for that matter, modern Russians who did not exist just a few decades ago? And himself? He does, after all, reinvent himself every four years or so.

Those who can’t teach run for office, I guess.

My source is here.

Use food stamps to fund your next vacation!

Republican Presidential Candidate and former Third Most Powerful Person in the Free World, New Gingrich said this about food stamps:

“…And we now give it away as cash — you don’t get food stamps. You get a credit card, and the credit card can be used for anything. We have people who take their food stamp money and use it to go to Hawaii. … You know, the Obama model: isn’t there somebody you’d like to give money to this week. That’s why we’re now going to help bailout Italy because we haven’t bailed out enough people this week, the president thought let’s write another check. After all, we have so much extra money.”

What an idiot. Anyway he lies. Find out the truth here.