First the results: New Gingrich Did Not Lose by As Much As You Might have Guessed He Might.
By the numbers, as estimated by various news agencies:
That’s a mighty strong showing for “Other” … it will be interesting to look into that.
Here’s the sequence over the last several days showing the March of the Numbers comparing Romney and Gingrich in polls
The last gazillian polls leading up to the Florida Primary. Romney has clearly always been the frontrunner. Except when he wasn't. These squiggles are comprised of moving averages that cover three polls in a row ordered approximately in temporal sequence, from Real Clear Politics.
The pattern we see in Florida reflects the pattern of the overall primary process. No one ever had any doubt that Romney was going to win this primary, but in fact, there were two times when he was not ahead in the polls, and at the last minute, note that Romney was dropping in numbers with Gingrich gaining . Ron Paul remains irrelevant.
Here’s the bigger picture. Before the Iowa Caucuses Romney was considered the most likely person to win. Santorum won.
Before the New Hampshire Primary was considered the most likely person to win. But Oscar the Grouch could have won that primary had he been from the Greater Boston Area, of which New Hampshire is a minor suburb.
Before the North Carolina Primary, Romney was considered to be the most likely person to win. Um. New Gingrich won that primary.
So, to date, the candidate who is repeatedly labeled as the most likely to win the nomination has won half of the contests and is being dogged by a formidable, if obnoxious, opponent.
Furthermore, TV pundits are getting something else wrong: (more…)