The recently identified trend of Romney heading towards the nomination with double digits on the second place guy (whoever that turns out to be) has now been displaced by my older model of Romne faltering as Santorum and/or Gingrich (but not Ron Paul) moves ahead. Several factors are pertinent:
1) Rick Perry has dropped out of the race and endorsed Gingrich. Gingrich has picked up a couple of other endorsements as well.
2) Romney did not do well in tonight’s debate. Gingrich did better, Santorum much better than either, according to people who can stomach watching these things.
3) The polls show shifting numbers with Gingrich moving according to some sources to a statistical tie, or almost so, with Romney.
4) Romney has retroactively lost the Iowa Caucuses. I already explained earlier why he had not won that race, but now everyone else has finally caught up with the X Blog.
It is possible that Gingrich will win tomorrow in South Carolina. UPDATED: change possible to probable. The latest polls show Gingrich ahead. Of course, that could change.