The results of the South Carolina Primary will not be as expected

The recently identified trend of Romney heading towards the nomination with double digits on the second place guy (whoever that turns out to be) has now been displaced by my older model of Romne faltering as Santorum and/or Gingrich (but not Ron Paul) moves ahead. Several factors are pertinent:

1) Rick Perry has dropped out of the race and endorsed Gingrich. Gingrich has picked up a couple of other endorsements as well.

2) Romney did not do well in tonight’s debate. Gingrich did better, Santorum much better than either, according to people who can stomach watching these things.

3) The polls show shifting numbers with Gingrich moving according to some sources to a statistical tie, or almost so, with Romney.

4) Romney has retroactively lost the Iowa Caucuses. I already explained earlier why he had not won that race, but now everyone else has finally caught up with the X Blog.

It is possible that Gingrich will win tomorrow in South Carolina. UPDATED: change possible to probable. The latest polls show Gingrich ahead. Of course, that could change.

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7 Responses to The results of the South Carolina Primary will not be as expected

  1. Mriana says:

    I dread any of them running for president, but I guess there is has to be someone to run against Obama or who ever the Dems agree on having run for their candidate. Of course, if Bernie Sanders threw his hat in the ring, I’d do a Miss Piggy on the Dems… “Um… Goodbye!”

  2. StevoR says:

    Newt Gingrich winning Sth carolina? Really? In a conservative state after that interview with his second wife?

    I think Santorum & Gingrich will just be taking votes off each other vying for the same religious “right” block while Ron Paul keeps plugging away without real hope and Romney romps it home. I’d be very surprised if Mittens doesn’t win this round – and shortly or eventually depending on the futile persistence of the others the Repub 2012 nomination.

    Course I could be wrong. Guess we’ll soon see.

  3. Francisco Bacopa says:

    My dream ticket would be Elizabeth Warren and Alan Grayson as alternative Democrats.

    But it is nice to see that the Repubs are going to slug it out and push into high weirdness. Obama will seem normal and safe by comparison.

  4. StevoR says:

    So we may have a situation where santorum surges again as Perry departs from the rear with Gingrich still behind and Mittens might have climaxed prematurely as his polls are going down already?

  5. Lou Jost says:

    I think that second-wife interview will have a huge effect on Gingrich. How can anybody stomach the hypocrisy of Newt railing on Clinton’s affair with an intern while having his own affair with an intern at the same time? And claiming to represent family values and the sacredness of marriage, while at the same time demanding his second wife let him sleep around!! No, I think this stretches even Republicans’ capacity to accept double-think.

  6. etcetera says:

    This won’t hurt Gingrich in the slightest. His “indiscretions”, shall we say, have been well known and this latest revelation is just more of the same. The problem is that the fundies simply won’t accept the most electable candidate and the Repubs have inextricably tied their fortunes to evangelicals that they can’t cut them loose when they turn into liabilities.

  7. StevoR says:

    Dangnabbit.

    Well, greg laden (& etcetera) it looks like you were right & I got it wrong :

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16669714

    Gingrich has won South Carolina easily over Romney with santorum third.