Romney Leads For Iowa, but numbers suggest he is not really a favorite

The Iowa Caucus (not to be confused with the mostly bogus Iowa Straw Poll, where Michele Bachmann bought herself a good lead) will be held Tuesday. A Caucus is an actual political event and it is not insignificant. If you hear someone say “Oh, caucuses don’t mean anything” or “A caucus is not a real thing” or whatever, start asking them questions and you’ll quickly learn that they don’t know much about the political process. Very likely, they’ve never been to one. Have you? If you haven’t, and your state has them, give it at try!

Amazingly, Mitt Romney is in the lead according to a recent poll by the Des Moines Register, going into Tuesday’s caucuses, but the lead is slim. And the configuration of the field seems at least a little stable. The CNN poll of December 28th shows this pattern:

Mitt Romney 25
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 16
Newt Gingrich 14
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 9
Jon Huntsman 1

… and the Des Moine Register poll shows this pattern:

Mitt Romney 24
Ron Paul 22
Rick Santorum 15
Newt Gingrich 12
Rick Perry 11
Michele Bachmann 7
Jon Huntsman 2
Not Sure 7

Interestingly, according to the Des Moines Register poll, Santorum and Perry share a 15 point lead for “second choice” and have relatively low numbers for the “Like Least” category. They are followed by Not Sure (14) with Romney coming in at 13 for the Second Choice category. The most “lease liked” is Rick Perry (15) with Romney (13) and Bachmann (12) close behind.

In some ways, this is the most interesting part of the poll:

screenshot of part of iowa poll

Detailed thinking on the Republican Candidates in the Iowa Caucus.

Gingrich is the most knowledgeable by far. I guess that is because he is a professor. Bachmann is the least knowledgeable but not by as much. I guess that’s because she’s a moron. Paul wins for reducing debt and having the smallest ego.

Romney leads the back by a large margin in being the “most electable” and Bachmann and Paul are almost tied for “lease electable.”

Interestingly, Huntsman is very ver ylow on “the most consistent” rating while Romney is fifth from the bottom. That surprises me. Otherwise, most of this makes sense except the part about Ron Paul’s ego.

What do you think?

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3 Responses to Romney Leads For Iowa, but numbers suggest he is not really a favorite

  1. StevoR says:

    If you hear someone say “Oh, caucuses don’t mean anything” or “A caucus is not a real thing” or whatever, start asking them questions and you’ll quickly learn that they don’t know much about the political process. Very likely, they’ve never been to one. Have you? If you haven’t, and your state has them, give it at try!

    State or nation?

    Caucus means something quite different in Australia although still politics related.

    In Oz the political party pre-selects its candidate swho then go to the election and the PM is chosen by the party and we have a Governer-General whose role is symbolic and the caucus is a group in the inner “cabinet” (or is it the outer one..)

    A-n-y-w-a-y

    Whenever I hear the caucus word I keep imagining it comically and phonetically ie. a giant something made from cork. Which is oddly apt for politicians & the political sphere.

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  3. Pingback: Strib Throws Bachmann Under Bus, But Occupy Loves Her | The X Blog

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