Aaron Blake at the Washington Post wrote this a couple of days ago but I missed it. It is still rather speculative, but the basic idea is that she would win if she ran for re-election to congress (a risky prediction given upcoming redistricting) but notes that her money supply has dried up and the shine is off her candidacy.
The fundraising prowess that Bachmann showed in her 2010 reelection campaign never really translated to the presidential campaign, for whatever reason. Yes, Bachmann raised decent money, but it seemed that as her campaign wore on, she became less and less a hero of the tea party movement. Given her poor showing in Iowa, we have to wonder whether she will retain the kind of cause celebre status that helped her raise an astounding $13 million for her last House reelection bid.
The redistricting is interesting, because Michele lives in the part of her district where she would have less support than other areas, and a redrawing of district boundaries in Minnesota will be required to make her district smaller. So, there is a certain chance that she’d find herself living (and thus required to run) in a district that wouldn’t vote for her.
What is needed, if she runs, is a better DFL strategy. So far the DFL has tried candidates that have features that make them more Bachmann like … former Republican, conservative, minister, etc. etc. What is needed here is are true liberal who is fast on his or her feet and can make people like them regardless of policy … a young and upcoming Paul Wellstone or Al Franken. A loss with a lot of important things said and severe damage done to the credibility of the Tea Party philosophic is the worst thing that can happen in such a case, and if Bachmann stumbles and the stars align just right, a victory by such a candidate over the Darling of the Tea Party would be awesome. And unlike everyone else I know, I don’t use the word “awesome” lightly!